Notice what is conspiculously absent from grain traders regarding crop conditions

[juliedavis91849]

And that is this : There is absolutely ZERO mention of how many thousands of acres soon to be washed away when the Great Muddy Mississippi decides "it's time, it's had its fill."

Furthermore, there is virtually no discussion of what's happening along THE Mc-Mississippi, ja..

Instead, all we hear is that what wasn't lost looks "good."... 

Conclusion :  Gottlieb, most likely wrong, tends to think this market will "cross that bridge" when it gets to it...

[Kay/NC]

I don' t knkw that it is prifessional to report on what hasn't happened yet. I more often find fault with reckless speculation.

[dennymal]

Julie;

  You can not look out your back door and make a market assessment. Our crops here  NE of Des Moines look like the best ever. A couple of years ago when it would not stop raining I figured we would be off 40 percent. It turned out we were down 10 percent.

[WCMO]

You mean like "expecting" record production from crops before they are even planted?

Or, hammering prices during a dry period because rain is in the forecast?  Or, hammering prices during a wet period because it's dry for a few days?

Kay, not getting on your case, just making comparisons.

[Kay/NC]

I know speculation is the soul of trading...it just ought not be the foundation of reporting.

[WCMO]

I agree, and extend similar thoughts beyond the market commenters and so-called journalists, to the USDA reports and forecasters.

[Kay/NC]

There is a point in the evening news, where the wratherman switches from the day's statistics ( news) to the projected future weather ( forecast). Our favorite weatherman so etimes presents several alternative " midels" and then states which ofbthise he sees as most likely.

That is the clarity lacking in most "news"...where the text shifts from actual, observed events to predicted outcomes. There oughta be a law....