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JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

10 Hard Years Coming

Rob Johannson, USDA Chief Economist, says farmers are looking at possibly 10 more years of prices like we're putting up with now.  Why?

*Oversupply

*Uncertainty about trade agreements

 

Debt is getting higher and only low interest rates are holding back pressure.  As interest rates rise, expect more farm delinquencies.

 

Land prices are holding and cash rents are coming down only slowly.

 

Newly established farmers may have a challenge holding out for the time necessary for the farm economy to strengthen.

 

Do we need the Chinese to have 5 kids per family or a big drought (somewhere else, please) to get the farm economy back in the comfort range?

 

 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: 10 Hard Years Coming

I think fringe acres will cry uncle in far less than 10yrs and correct the oversupply. Inputs will have to continue to moderate. It'll be survivable but you won'tgget fat.
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