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Senior Contributor

2019 inputs

Whats a good price on conventional soybean seed? Conventional corn? 

 

Can the name brand companies produce and market corn for $100 a bag? That's what it takes to get the cost down to something in line with the 80's $50 a bag seed and $2 corn. $75 per bag would be more in line but I realize that the costs of doing business have gone up and we may not be stuck with $3 corn forever. If you hedge out for a year or two and play the basis games, you still can get close to $4 corn. I know $160 conventional corn from one of the P or D companies doesn't work in the current low price environment, though.

 

For beans, I wonder if you can get a $20 price per unit on some high yielding conventional beans with SCN protection and IDC in a 2.0 maturity. A guy would have to put some pre down to control weeds but we had some nice fields 30 years ago without roundup, dicamba, etc.

 

Nitrogen fert will be hard to get a deal on with $70 per barrel oil.

 

Same with fuel costs.

 

Chemical costs should be stable and the real buys right now are on equipment, based on watching auctions this last month. Probably not buying much regardless of price.

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Honored Advisor

Re: 2019 inputs

You can probably get a good conventional corn, after discounts, early pay ect for $135/bag and conventional bean seed in the low $20s after discounts.  There`s some cheaper, but it might be like buying a $2 steak out of a white van   Smiley Happy   I won`t mention the company but they bought a bunch of pallets of old Cornelius seed with the outer layer of the bag ripped off, germ tested and rebagged in their bags.   Probably good corn, just Cornelius seconds.  I always vow to cut seed costs by going to a smaller company, but never do.   I bought DK 54-36 for probably $175/ a bag and am very happy with it considering the year it`s had and some Pioneer and Croplan.   You can work with those companies and get good numbers for $200ish/bag, well that`s $80ish a acre verses "door number 3" for $45/acre, to me the DeKalb Pioneer support is worth that extra $35/acre expense.

 

With beans, I think there`s a lot of options, but there again a lot of different thoughts from buying cheap bean seed and treating the heck out of the seed and fungicide application on the field, spending your money that way.  

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Senior Contributor

Re: 2019 inputs

Yeah, $135 for conventional seed corn of current production sounds like a decent price, and $25 soybeans are not going to break the bank. I paid about ten percent less last year, but had a pretty decent quantity going to get some arm twisting.

 

It's amazing at how so many think they can still pay $300 a unit for some super duper seed, along with agronomy fees, high rents, etc. It's one thing to dream about $5 corn coming back, but it's another to face reality and try to make money in the current environment. I bet bankers are going to make any  farmer on the edge look at each line of their inputs and cut for 2019.

 

The federal money will help, but it will never make up for the declines in price we have experienced. I would hate to own an implement business that is trying to sell new paint.

 

I think it's a good year to clean out a lot of my old equipment...the price is down some, but the money will buy more and the tax hit isn't going to be so severe.

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Honored Advisor

Re: 2019 inputs

I hear scrap iron prices are way down, so my equipment line took a big hit in value.  Smiley Very Happy     I know a guy that got hail and had to replant corn, he had planted $140 seed, but his free replant seed was the smartstax +$250 seed as that was the only seed the dealer had left.  

 

Fertilizer is up, up up for next year and some seed co`s raised their prices and some cut a little.  I think bankers are going to determine the demand on much of these inputs, perhaps things will get cheaper later in the buying season?   Especially after the cold January, kneepad, banker meetings.   

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 2019 inputs

I'd be surprised if one can get any kind of decent conventional soybean for $20/bag, even with out any treatments.  I paid twice that last year but got some treatments and so forth.

 

I'm surprised scrap iron is down with the tariffs, but maybe the scrap iron went overseas for smelting - I don't know.  I called and got a quote on farm machinery type scrap iron and was told $123/T.  

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Honored Advisor

Re: 2019 inputs

If times "go back to the 1990s" as one guru suggested (and is probably right) perhaps we`ll have to operate like the 90`s and plant bin run seed again?  If you have to have Roundup seed, I think Roundup 1 seed is off patent, but check before you plant.   Oil up the old Clipper fanning mill  Smiley Happy   Then your bean seed cost is $8/acre.

 

I think scrap iron was $200 for a time and backed off like you say to $120.  A local yard is piling it, not moving it out, so usually they must think it`ll going up when they do that.

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 2019 inputs

Suppose  there  is  a  '''  scrap  iron  ''''  tariff   reimbursement  due  to  $80.oo  drop  in  price  ?  

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Senior Contributor

Re: 2019 inputs

all snide remarks aside, it is pretty good policy to have a viable steel mfc industry in America, and once the mills get competitive, the price of domestic scrap should rebound nicely.

 

Great days ahead for America!

Honored Advisor

Re: 2019 inputs

rsbs,

 

Nice comment,  should be......down the road.  But the continual battle to get the vehicle out of the ditch may take a little pain.

 

Been in colorado mountains this week doing the new style "jeep'n" up high....... Been a while for me...... The national forest is like inspecting crop after a bad hail.  

You can't imagine the amount of wasted resources.

Great days up here will be decades away.

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: 2019 inputs

There isn`t much scrap iron left in the country, when iron was $200-$300 it was cashed in.  now that set the bar for what precious few piles are left.   There isn`t even many groves left where the junk was sitting, $7 corn and $250 unprepared iron took care of a lot of surplus.   

 

And cars nowadays are mostly plastic. 

 

I had a junker tell me once that he made the most money when junk was cheap, I suppose because he`d get to clean up groves for free, if junk is high the owner gets a little greedy.  A local factory was notorious for layoffs, well everybody that worked the with a pickup became a junker during layoffs and they couldn`t estimate weights to save their life.  So they`d run up piles of junk on each other where there was no profit....come to think of it farmers and junkers have a lot in common   Smiley Happy