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Veteran Advisor

2020 Net Farm Income To Rise

Here is the latest net farm income projections from the USDA's ERS arm.

U.S. net cash farm income—gross cash income less cash expenses—when adjusted for inflation is forecast to decrease $13.1 billion (10.7 percent) to $109.6 billion in 2020.

U.S. net farm income—a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates noncash items including economic depreciation and gross imputed rental income—is forecast to increase $1.4 billion (1.4 percent) from 2019 to $96.7 billion in 2020.

If forecast changes are realized, net cash farm income in 2020 would be 0.6 percent below its inflation-adjusted average calculated over the 2000-18 period, while net farm income would be 5.4 percent above its 2000-18 average. The trajectories of the two income measures diverge in 2020 largely because of how net sales from inventories are treated.

Net cash farm income records income in the year the sale took place, while net farm income counts it in the year the production occurred. High net sales ($14.9 billion) from crop inventories forecast in 2019 are expected to boost net cash farm income significantly that year.

Very low net sales from inventories ($0.5 billion) in 2020 are expected to contribute to a decrease in net cash farm income between the two years. In the net farm income series, net inventory changes are removed from cash receipts and track more closely with the value of annual agricultural production. Find additional information and analysis on the ERS Farm Sector Income and Finances topic page, reflecting data released February 5, 2020.

 

What say you?

 

Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 2020 Net Farm Income To Rise

so which is it?  Here you lead off with farm income to rise, yet on the website, the headline is farm income to fall.  And I saw a link to a reuters article with the headline farm income to fall.  So confusing!!  Maybe I'll just ignore it and focus on MY farm income, which I DON'T expect to fall.  Of course out here, nothing is guaranteed, so maybe it will.  Guess I'll just try to be prepared either way.

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Senior Advisor

Re: 2020 Net Farm Income To Rise

Reading  the  article  in  Livestock News ,   Beef  integration by  Laurie Bedord ,  the   3 RD  paragraph  was  most  interesting  -  -  -

A  quote  from  Will  Sawyer  on '' historical '',   hmmmm  - - -   

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Honored Advisor

Re: 2020 Net Farm Income To Rise

You got too much time on your Beltway hands when you stop to ..........."when adjusted for inflation is forecast".....

To adjust for inflation........ try suspenders.

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How could net income go down any farther than 2019??

Senior Advisor

Re: 2020 Net Farm Income To Rise

Mindful , if  the  latest  round, notice , to  purposed,  laid  off  workers *(105)  at  John Deere ,  IF  adjusted  for  inflation  has  merit  --  --  -- ?

Suppose  that  notice,  will  affect  Creighton University  9  state , monthly, Rural  Mainstreet  Index, economic  barometer  -  of  which  regularly, I  ask  myself  if  they  ever review  their  last  months  statements  -  -  -

For  quite  some  time  deficit spending  was  the  conversation,  although  not  much  discussion on  that  topic  as  of late -   &  I  suppose,  adjusting   for  something,  or  the  other   -  ? 

Can  you  just  imagine,  a  trip  to  your  financial  branch,  and  doing  a  monthly  inflation  adjustment  -  -  -   

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Honored Advisor

Re: 2020 Net Farm Income To Rise

If a ladder analogy is possible ,    I guess we're not touching ground yet.  There is still a rung or two below us.  Which means we could decend lower and the ladder could fall on us ..... in a crippling sort of way.  

Base camp on the side of a cliff......  appropriate ?

Would a little profit be that hard?

Would these folks consider that excessive in an adjusted for deflation sort of way .........

So todays entry is brought to you by the letter W and the number 3 which have both been adjusted for inflation in a  "irresponsible" sort of calculation.

Audited by usda's severed arm..... next up...... how many adjusted acres will usda plant in 2020?  

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