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Honored Advisor

616 bushel per acre corn ----????

At what yield does the profit maximize........ ??

Nothing else matters.... Disney can probably produce 600+ bu corn without dirt..... so what.....  They have floods of cash supporters making it look smart.  But can they feed the world at a reasonable cost?

It was obvious this record breaker doesn't want to get that kind of return on every acre..... and still needs those other acres to pay the bills.

Any thoughts on that article that flashed through SF this week?

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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: 616 bushel per acre corn ----????

Dave Hula is the man, no doubt about it and I think it was a 10 acre plot...and no identical gravity wagons with one set having cement in the tires  Smiley Happy

The stars did line up weatherwise to blow through the 600 bpa mark.   However, to say every acre on a midwest 1,000 acre farm could get a guaranteed 250 bushel yield would be pushing optimism even if money was no object.   Herman Warsaw got 370 yield in early 1980`s Francis Childs got 440 yield in the 1990`s .  Here we are 35 yrs after Herman Warsaw and with all the whiz bang hybrids, straight planting, pattern tile ect ect ect and the biggest bragger in the coffee shop still hits a 300 bushel ceiling on yield on a field average.  

In my opinion the low hanging fruit has been picked on yield that being weed control and timely planting and fertility holy grail.  You take care of that triangle and from there on yield increases become economically uncertain...I mean put 500lbs of N on and insecticide, fungicide ect ect ect$$$$ on 10 acres and get hailed out or flooded out no big whoop, but spend all that input expense on 1,000 acres and it doesn`t pan out, then you got trouble.

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Senior Advisor

Re: 616 bushel per acre corn ----????

Leaves  me  asking,  what  would  a  '''  rent -  share  '''   agreement  look  like  -   -   -

Thinking  , I  would  rent  him  400 acres   -  say  for  116  bushel  rent /  acre ,  leaving  a  margin,  opportunity  of  500  bushels   -  -  - 

Might  tweek  the  lease ,  with  $3,40  on  the  116 ,  due  Jan. 2 ,  2020   -  maybe ?         

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Honored Advisor

Re: 616 bushel per acre corn ----????

.I got an idea for a comment on farm management and this feeds into it.  What level of risk can your farm stand.  I’ve long thought the discussion on genetic improvement was irrelevant in terms of higher yield for most farm s.  A dangerous trap for others.  

High plain irrigation being a great testing ground.  If you concentrate water to shoot for potential, double input costs and cut irrigated acres in half, the risk factor goes up and puts you in a hail risk of loosing the farm in one year , because there is no way to insure that crop at the break even rate or absorbe the losses in a tough climate.  P1197 is not new or special genetics we’ve had it profitably at 240-260 for a while.  I just see no level of logic that supports a contest that teaches us very little.

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Senior Advisor

Re: 616 bushel per acre corn ----????

SW - Interesting  thoughts,  as  I  remember  while  traveling  the  US -54  ,  observing  half  circles  of  surviving , while  the  remaining  half ,  blistered  &  burnt  &  brown,  abandoned ,  due  to  the  pivot  not  keeping  up  - - -

A  whistling  sound  out  of  a  nozzle - sprinkler  being  a  daunting  message ,  reminder  -   -   -

Does  each  tax  district ,  revert  property tax  obligations,  to  dry land value,  when  keeping  up  is  out  of  the  question - ? 

Yield  checks  data,  in  those  fields, could  be  an  interesting  chapter  of  info  - in  those  lessened  environments - ?

Is '' corn  fallow '' ,  an  option - conversation  -  ?         

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Senior Advisor

Re: 616 bushel per acre corn ----????

Listening  to  the  conversations  from  the  K  F  U  convention  in  McPherson,  it  would  seem  the  616  is  NOT  the  main  topic  -  -  -    

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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: 616 bushel per acre corn ----????

We live in a very interesting time.  For most caught in the decreasing irrigation slide in Ks, very difficult times.  If you think you have management skills......... they are being tested.... severely tested.  There are a few living where there is still a volume of water, but most are well into the real depletion phase.

All the corn growers contest means to me is this......... It shows me how out of touch with farming most of the proponents of farming really are.  Magazines, marketing businesses, crop advisors, consultants, land owners, equipment salesmen.............etc

It has never been about increasing yield.  We have always had yield potential beyond to work with.... in every crop we raise.  It has always depended on the variables of climate and management.  Management smart enough to know that "Profitability" is the key, not yield.... And the absolute truth ......... Risk management must be in the formula to produce a business that survives.....   because all goals are meaningless if survival is not a top priority.

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: 616 bushel per acre corn ----????

I  have  noticed  an  eyebrow  raise,  in  my  mentions   of  oat  hay ,  2  crops  / season ,  although  not  much  interest  from  retail  vs.   my  $tability  -  -  -  

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