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Honored Advisor

Ag survey question

Do you have grain stored in your facilities?

My question is. If they are contracted for delivery next month and priced —(not in open storage) is the answer yes or no?
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5 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Ag survey question

I don't know the answer to that question or the thinking behind it.

 

I'd take it just as asked.  If there's grain there, I'd say yes.  

 

I have rented out some bins to neighbors.  I would not answer on those bins.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Ag survey question

In this case jim I sell the grain to the feedlot and they lease the space until delivery, by way of a higher price for later delivery.

But every time I ask that question to usda personel they say if it is in your bin you must count it because it is not consumed yet.

 

My thought is --- that grain is not available to sell to anyone else and is sold.  I do not think it should be counted as farmer held grain and It should not be assumed that it is still going to come into the market.  Yet I am threatened by usda personel that I will be considered giving false data if I do not count it.

my thought is usda has no purpose.  They do not trust farmers and do not want to deal with research that is not simple.  So they want visually verifiable information.  And then I wonder how they catagorize the ground piles at the ethanol plant, bought and paid for at harvest yet to be "consumed".  Is it counted in some way?

Or is the inventory waiting at the port for shipment counted?  

It is all grain on it's way to fill a contract--- already sold...( I assume usda treats us all the same)  and if hobby is delivering beans  committed to an crush plant  from his bins by a previous agreement it should not be considered part of the carry in reporting.  If he is not committed to dump when he gets there then it should.

 

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Point is IMO the question is wrong..... It should be how many bushels are yet unsold  / or the traditional "How many bushels are in open storage on your farm in bins that are not leased to someone else?"

 

It destorts reality when it comes to surplus grain data and IMO.... actual production expectations are distorted.

I remember when the local elevators were tied up with government owned grain forfeited from government loan--(back when loan rates were realistic)  That is not the case now.  

 

Some thought behind my continuing doubts that usda is a good source of data.  the statements "they are the best source we have" and "they are the worst source we have" can both be true.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Ag survey question

I don't agree with you.  I see USDA's point.  But it doesn't matter to me.  

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Honored Advisor

Re: Ag survey question

It is a question not a point made....... If the answer is what I get from usda then all grain in farm storage that are already purchased by end users and not picked up yet...... or in ground piles not fed yet is being counted as available to the market or part of the surplus at the time... 

Not because usda intends to distort data or even gives thought to what they do.....but what they do is quoted and accempted as fact only months after the "projecting" stops, by all of us and most of the world...It may very well just be a historic practice that is out of date. ...... like immigration.

 

It is a confusing question to operators with farm storage.  If the farmer has 100k of production.... contracts production and stores that production for the feedlot company and accepts partial payment and storage payments for 70K of the 100 to be picked up as the feedlot picks it up.  Then hauls the other 30K to the coop and leaves it on open storage

 

He has control of the grain at the elevator and can reclaim it or sell it.  but has already sold the grain in his bins.  Yet the question in regard to farm storage on the survey can only be answered as "What is in your bins, we do not care about its marketing"....  

Within our county there has been over 3 million bushels of new storage erected by producers over the last 15 years.  And when I drive through western Iowa many millions of new storage..... With farmer owned bushels becoming more in the news at usda and on M to M discussions... I want to know what I should answer.

 

I can't imagine anyone who produces, stores or markets grain would not have the same question.  I certainly get private messages on the subject every time it becomes news worthy. 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Ag survey question

You don't have to care....... 

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