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Honored Advisor
Posts: 11,091
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Pride goeth...

...before a fall.  If things are going great, you do not have to be much of a manager to make it...the margin of error is that much more forgiving. 

Some people make the mistake of thinking things will always be this favorable in ag....just like millions did in tying themselves to bigger and bigger mortgages up until a couple of years ago, or by buying some of those derivatives in the mortgage investment markets.    

A trend almost always slows or reverses itself at some point in time.  It is knowing to control yourself when things are good, so you can stick it out with reserves or lower exposure when they are not, that makes for a real business plan. I had a salesman call the farm today, adn he mentioend that this is the first down economy where he "had to worry about it myself."  :

"As in no longer under Mom and Dad's roof, right?"  I asked, and he said I was right.  This is about the fourth one I can recall in one way or another...since I've been under our own roof. 

Right now, this one simply makes me feel that our retirement comfort level will be either a bit lower or a bit delayed.  Then again, it could get WAYYYYY worse, couldn't it? 

Don't know how old you are and how many cycles you've experienced under your own roof, but I think you will see a lot more of them, good and bad. 

For you , with high rents and other inputs, it only takes a drop in markets to turn everything from sugar to manure...you can only hedge out so far, right?