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Advisor

Excuse me, redux

Read this report published one year ago.  Then ask yourself if all will be going as planned if trade policy follows as Mr. Trump desires.  Remember, we in Ag stand to lose more than any other sector of American business if it plays out.

 

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/the-roots-of-trumps-trade-rage-214639

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15 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Excuse me, redux

IMO, if you want to know more about somebody, just look at their history. When it comes to business, Trump has been a negotiator his entire career. I don't believe Trump will pull out of NAFTA unless he really feels like he has to. If you've been in business long enough then you will realize that nearly everything in business is negotiable. Farmers negotiate seed, fertilizer, land rent and equipment purchases. I personally don't mind a president that tries to negotiate a better trade deal on my behalf. 

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Advisor

Re: Excuse me, redux

Negotiating is one thing. Pulling out while thinking he can negotiate separate agreements simultaneously is another thing. Look at TPP. Not one agreement has been concluded since leaving that. The clock is ticking.
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Advisor

Re: Excuse me, redux

For the most part farmers are Patriots and like Washington and Jefferson before them, ready and willing to sacrifice their lives and plantations in the cause of Freedom (TM)!

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Advisor

Re: Excuse me, redux

“Patriot”is a misnomer, when faced with political gaslighting and Fearmongering.  To question one’s patriotism by which ideology is correct, is evidence one does not have a clear understanding of a democracy and it’s constitutional guarantees.  

 

A well known patriot, and professor emeritus says there are two ways to govern effectively; one is by democratic compromise, and the other is by the barrel of a gun.  One is a long and arduous process, and the other is bloody.

 

Never question someone’s loyalty to America, simply because you do not agree with another’s vision.  The alternative is unthinkable.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Excuse me, redux

Lets be clear this is not about civics....

It is about the fact that I believe this is not a legitimate statement of fact.  Or a position of knowledge, but rather a political comment.

 

"Remember, we in Ag stand to lose more than any other sector of American business if it plays out."  

Or is it fear mongering.

 

 

 

 

 

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Advisor

Re: Excuse me, redux

Point being regarding the conundrum of being anti-government in a business that relies on periodic policy adjustment and in fact is built on the moral hazard of occasional major interventions by government. Farming today- and asset values- are predicated on the expectation that the government put is there if needed.

 

My greater concern isn't with any single policy, it is with larger governmental dysfunction- we won't have a functioning government for at least another three years and following the midterms it is probably going to be a lot worse. If weather, trade disadvantage etc. do happen to conspire to make this situation more grave- and I think that is a realistic concern- the odds of the sort of major relief that government has offered in the past seems dim.

 

 

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Advisor

Re: Excuse me, redux

Not to mention the tax cuts, which ensure that the claim can be made that the government has no money (and that's the feature, not the bug) almost assure that there won't be major income transfer programs.

 

That pretty much leaves ethanol but we currently have the most fossil fuel friendly administration in history and, on the other side, the enviros have gone a little sour on that as well. That's going to be a tough sell other than some small and incremental moves.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Excuse me, redux

functioning government............... Not sure I have ever seen that.....   unless the definition means a constant creation of the problem to generate the need for a fix.

 

I totally disagree with your assesment of agriculture being dependent on political policy.

 

We been disfunctional to anything other than political ambition for decades..... and will continue to be as long as "government" is the cash cow.

 

Agriculture was here long before the political theft began and will be after...

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Advisor

Re: Excuse me, redux

SW, it is a factual statement. Ag will lose market share, big time.

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