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Honored Advisor

Re: Farm Debt Increasing

Since we`re in the midst of a "tell your father, I said....."  discussion, I`ll reply to my own post   Smiley Happy  Okay correlation isn`t causation, in other words the Sun doesn`t rise because the rooster crows.  Or to be a little more blunt, just because someone is unhappy with the results of the 2016 election, that isn`t the cause of $3 corn and $8 beans.   Sure, if we want to give away the store on trade in the greater economy, then yes other countries will buy more ag commodities ...$3 for $1 or $4 for $1.

 

Here is looking at the world, not staring at a single tree and wondering where the forest is. Look at these WORLD stocks to use charts and can Ferris Bueller tell me where we had $7 corn and where we have $3 corn?

 

Image result for world grain carryover by year

Image result for world soybean ending stocks

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Farm Debt Increasing

So  ,  selling  less,   at  our  expense ,  has  actually  helped  what - ? 

 

Seems  interesting  that  all  of  the  import  junk  for  the  BIG  box  type  outfits,  wasn't  slowed  a  bit -  just AG  shouldering  the  load  -  -  -

 

The  words  EASY  PLAY,  Snooker,    comes  to  mind  -  maybe - ?      

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Honored Advisor

Re: Farm Debt Increasing

Look at it this way K-289.   If there`s a surplus of horse manure in the world and you`re the biggest producer of horse manure, to sell your horse manure you make trade agreements that you`ll buy $10 worth of fake vomit for every $1 of horse manure they buy from you....I just don`t see how that`s a "good deal".  unless you personally produce horse manure in your own little niche...then I suppose "do whatever it takes to peddle your surplus of horse manure". 

 

* and no, anyone wanting to take cheap shots, I`m not equating grain to "horse manure"...i`m just sayin`whatever the commodity soybeans, horse manure or pink plastic flamingos.  Study exactly how much "boot money" we have to pile on top of grain & oil seeds to get them to move in the world market.

 

https://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Boot

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Honored Advisor

Re: Farm Debt Increasing

Thanks Smokey...... great statistical presentation and a wonderful opportunity to compare our what we each see as it relates to agriculture  and I'll try to do it concisely  

 

1 This chart ....IMG_1801.JPG

You see an affect on agriculture --- I see the improvement in the economy of mexico created by nafta and the benefit to companies who expanded into mexico to invest outside US regulations and gain a cheap labor market.  Cotton and other ag products gained new markets south of the border as US markets for our commodities left the US -- that change will not be affected by changes in documents. ---- Only the difference in the two columns mean anything to the US economy  I see a trade deficit that got worse --- in 90-94 we profited from trade with nafta countries by 1.6 B..... in 2012-16 the us lost 1.8 Billion trading with nafta countries

 

2...IMG_1938.JPG

I see a chart that is  1. way to early to show the affects of trumps work, 2... shows the long range problem our trade practices have been and conveniently stops at 2000.  I would like to see it from 1980 to view the effects of the original nafta agreement.  3.  Correlate deficit spending with national debt.... the affect of Clintons work in the 90's was to improve world economies at the expense of ours and it appears to have been successful.

 

3....IMG_2007 (2).JPG

Like an Sales projection from a farmer this Governmental (out of context) chart shows US Production in $$ terms.  

If I were considering this farmer for a loan I want to see a debt chart for the same years, and an expence chart for the same years.

You can build some ego pumping presentations on borrowed money, but they don't tell the story of economic health.  This one represents federal spending on borrowed money

 

4.....IMG_1999 (4).JPG

I see the affect of changing the way we record unemployment and the ineffectiveness of the federal labor department.  It's irritating because I have a son who deemed a "too expensive" writer by media and has not exercised that talent since layed off at the peak of that chart.  But government in its self preservative best, changes the rules as to what defines unemployment so the charts don't look so bad...and we ignore the jobs we destroy or ship to china and mexico.  And worst of all another political president uses the fake information as a prop 

Who knows what the truth is here....... 

 

5...IMG_2027.PNG

 

I see ....... Ever notice how the chart builders use inflation when they want to make farm expenses not look so bad and ignore inflation when they are trying to make nafta trade gains look good...   I totally agree with the blue line farm expenses have skyrocketed ,,,, largely an affect of federal deficit spending and the inflation it gave us as we tried to make the economy look better with borrowed money.

 

6......IMG_2063.JPG

Farm sector debt over 40 years ----- I see the best chart of the bunch.  and the most positive ------ sort of..

With the back drop of federal borrowing.  farm debt is totally misrepresented and the details on it are spelled out in the footnotes.

another "inflation adjusted dollars" to make the chart look better.  Real dollar debt therefore is a lot higher and might be touching the chart above it.  With the fed holding interest down and even considering negitave interest rates at one point how much debt does it take to hold interest spending up for the last 10 years.  

The one thing I see in this chart (considering its proximity to actual real dollars) is how difficult the 1980's had to be.  Interest itself was probably driving debt up without new purchases.

Whe imputs are manipulated so much that footnotes don't do a decent job of explaining .........charts are just tools for presentations/artwork.

 

7......IMG_2079.JPG

Soybean sales......... I see..... an opinion piece but truely .... ag. got a pass on the 2008 wreck thanks to a drought (individuals did not get a pass), statistically as usda views it , to hell with the individuals who couldnt raise a crop, "farmers got rich and fat 2008-18."

Trump has been many odd things but not a normal politician telling you what you want to hear.  He said, we gotta fix this deficit trade and deficit spending and both have to be done (somewhat paraphrased Smiley Happy)  If your told,  we got a bad tooth and its gotta come out ... your gonna get some pain.  Ag is an even bigger part of trade, thank's to our decisions in the 90's to outsource our manufacturing and build massive containerized recieving docks... the only part of the production economy not outsourced-- misleading statement , maybe a bit because--we are outsourcing much of our labor to raise the grain and will have to if we all go organic..

This chart   I see..... the most politically suspicious chart in the group.   whoever" unknown" is we aught to find out...... but we know.... most of the time.----joke is over.     This tells you a lot about the hand picking of data for presentation  --the footnote tells us something different than title does.....   The chart represents less than 4 months of a marketing year, we won't know what this chart will look like until next fall.   Interesting that unknowns bought 30% of the 2017 purchases as of mid december and nearly 50% of the 2018 crop.  That is a lot of unknown to hide a political statement behind...  Gets my worst use of statistics award today.

 

8.....IMG_2081.JPG

I agree ag has and is taking a big hit.....and I like this chart it shows with vague stats some truths of history  and I would like to call the blue line break even potential. Smiley Happy   It shows farmings ups and downs over time and shows how distorted and abnormal the last 10 years have been.  I keep wanting to ask what effect public policies had on that and maybe none...but I say as much economic destruction in those years above the line than now below it ......so far...  our Young left in droves and small farms took any way out.  I know that is regionalized somewhat but the way we gather stats and apply $$ values to things, ignore inflation, the cost of technology and think we can fix things by writing bigger loans and calling them something else...distorts reality.... I feel like we flew off the handle in 2008 trying to prevent pain and haven't got enough of a working economy left for anybody but a robot to regain our grip.   too  much emotion there but I do like being ablle to point to this chart and say working with a budget is normal.... see.  The last 10 years has been the abnormal

 

9..IMG_2092.JPG

This is not worth much but it is a fun presentation....

a.   a teacher of some sort prepared it (brookings institute?) notice who is last

b.  Who gets laid off first..... usually middle management  ---- lower reds.

c.  Costs of automation..... will dictate who accepts it and who doesn't  Government had better reconsider what happened at the post office...... automation is far cheaper than employees on a public level... (FSA could be done through a website and a little outsourcing to the crop insurance lobby.

d.  ag. got some $6 corn and 14 beans to make the innitial investment..... from here on it is going to be hard for ag to robotic itself from sheer cash flow

interesting stuff thanks Smokie

 

10  Real estate value  ----- no comment .... somewhat regional and many regions haven't discovered they are not farming communities any more  Things sold as farm land are investment bridges yet farmed.      comment  to some things i see in farm magazines  --- Farmers still buy the land.... my comment  they never set the price..... The next to last bidder sets the price.  We need to pay attention to who he was.

 

11.   IMG_2099.JPG

 

I am afraid the economic slide is just starting in terms of bankruptcies especially if we continue to see a government that embarrasses us.   I know we may all be embarassed by different things but economic stability may stay on a downturn as long as half the country thinks it is good and another american is the enemy.  It takes faith to get through tough times... in all sense of the word.

12 FB chart is very telling ... for agriculture....... we will regress to the size that supports economics.... government cannot be our crutch forever...not when you consider the federal budget going to all the gray states in that map.

 

13 & 14

There are far too many assumptions and unknowns to give either chart credibility..... 500 million to the ag economy is not a big number at all and if your spending 2 billion to get it those special interest groups don't care......

These two charts just drive me to condemn lobbyists organizations..... and their self serving role in pumping cash out of congress.

But I will keep them both so we can see how close to reality they were in a few years.

 

 

Thanks for this Smokey....

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Farm Debt Increasing

When  we  set  ourselves  up  as  an  easy  target,  it  happens ,  as  did  the  grocery  situation  in  Hawaii  this  past  few  days - - -

 

Knowing  your  politics  can  be  helpful,  such  as   Boeing  building  the  737's   IN   CHINA   NOW  -  -  -

 

Keeping   a  lid  on  intell  property's  being  a  mentioned  subject,  &   then  building  jet  liners  there,  seems  quite  ironic  - maybe ? 

 

Whom  gets  the Trade  Credits  '' adjusted  figures ''' from  the  Boeing  Sales  reports,  U S A  or  China   -  ? 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Farm Debt Increasing

exactly...... that is why statistics are so difficult to rely on quickly....

 

Every use of stats needs a healthy dose of consideration and thought.

 

even the easiest of the "renegotiations" .....nafta .... is a very complicated set of statistics with many different events contributing to every change...(like the first bar chart.)

And for short attention span americans like me, a solid rethink of history...  especially when specific small time cycles are used to creat data.

 

I get agervated at gov'ts use of $$ adjusted for inflation......... it's always done because we don't like real dollars... real dollars make us look at our mistakes in real cost.

 

A good joke with a banker friend --- is Jack, can the guy pay that loan back with inflation adjusted dollars?  The return stare is priceless.  Smiley Happy

Time-- and especially the last 10 years have made me cynical.  Yet it is kind of fun to look at a presentation and try to disect the real issues creating those numbers....... I find that many farm related businesses know their picture but do terrible jobs at evaluating what created that picture .... and if they don't figure that out, they will never devise a corrective plan that will work.

Critical thinking is not a bad thing.  We just get lazy when things are easy.  And we like to think the other guy has our answers.

 

Nothing is easy right now...but we are lazy when we need to find current demons to blame for future pretend outcomes...... we have been wedging our collective fat butt into this position for a long time..... and all we are doing is cursing at the usher for asking us to consider another seat.  I expect better than that from myself and our country as a whole..... especially ag where we still claim a work ethic and personal responsibility and with computer help.................... can still spell them.

 

Smiley Happy  Have a great saturday night and a hopefull spring...... find ways to get it done and enjoy the process.

 

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Farm Debt Increasing

BA..

 

Dont forget one of those wonderful congressional accomplishments  ( I wish i could do a good "will Rogers" on it)------ Daylight savings time.   Congress thinks if it is the rooster it will have that power.

 

A good match of charts.......... The first showing how demand has rocketed up for corn ,,,,, and yet trying not to.

and the second  showing ?????

 Take a look at this matching chart and the picture becomes far more focused and the lie told by just showing one chart becomes more clear.

 

 

chart.png

 

How high has world demand become ???

The world is walking a supply chain tight rope  -- the world carry over is 20% of world usage.  73 days supply.

In real historic terms that is not a surplus.........usda needs to make it look so.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Farm Debt Increasing

SW -  You  also,  and  let  us  know  if  #3  is  spotted  over  your  way,  1 , 2 ,  & 4  are  becoming  weary  of  the  continual  questioning - Smiley LOL

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Advisor

Re: Farm Debt Increasing

SW, I have to give you credit for reading the posts.  Most do not even bother, but still give an uneducated opinion.  

 

One thing to remember is when policy decisions are made, the prime rule is do no further harm to your country and citizens.  The charts suggest policy has harmed agriculture.  Seriously harmed.  We do not deny other people have suffered from poor policies of the past.  But that is not a valid justification for selling out agriculture, the only industry having generated a massive positive balance of trade.  

 

Second, inflation adjusted dollars is reported in real dollars.  Today’s dollars are depreciated dollars, thanks to general inflationary pressures, even when annual rates are under 3%.  

 

Third, the US just won a major victory in the WTO court, giving commodity grains authority to assess penalties from countries deemed guilty of violating trade agreements.  This venue is one of several appropriate means to combat Chinese trade violations, meaning, if they want to continue receiving favored nation trade status, they would have to change their practices.  So, no trade war, but sanctions recognized by all trading partners.  

 

Fourth, had we stayed in the TPP, this would have set up a trading block of nations bound to honor trade agreements with each other, leaving China on the outside, having to compete against a very high tariff on its products, effectively shutting down their illegal trafficking of goods at subsidized prices.

 

Just somethings 45 never thought about, which would have minimized harm to agriculture.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Farm Debt Increasing

That is fine if Boeing produces 737`s in China with suicidal slave labor, so long as those unsafe pieces of junk are peddled to the rest of the 3rd world.  However, if one of those pieces of crap make it into THIS country, we`d better tariff the "s-word" out of those hunks of tin.   

 

See, you guys apparently don`t care if factories move overseas, you just want your stuff cheap, cheap,cheap!  But when a US factory shuts down and the workers are left searching for crumbs at Dollar General or work temporarily helping a Sears store close...you guys don`t give a crap.  ...but, if global world trade results in your wheat prices being below your cost of production....then oh my God!   "bloody murder!".   Many more times in US factory workers that number of farmers have paid the price over the last 20,30 years for your precious "wheat price".   

 

China is a bad operator, list of human rights violations longer than your arm and prop up North Korea indirectly with US CONSUMER DOLLARS.  If God forbid a missile makes it to Honolulu or the west coast, it will have US consumer dollar fingerprints on it.   See, this cheap crap like $200 50" flat screens at Wally World you people don`t think you can live without, has a much higher REAL cost that that $200 price tag.   Either you will understand that or you won`t.

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