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Advisor

Re: Farmland Ceiling Raised…Again/Faust

rsw - it was a dry year in Pocahontas County, and the potholes were dry.  Years ago I used to audit the Pocahontas co-op, back then it was known as the county of 10,000 potholes. In fact I think  Pocahontas is the only county in Iowa that is classified as a remaining prairie pothole region in the upper midwest along with those designated counties in North Central North Dakota.  

 

 

 I remember a few years ago when I was on my way to South Dakota and when it was wet up there, you could smell the ears of corn in the fields fermenting. Great County to have a farm in though.   John

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Advisor

Re: Farmland Ceiling Raised…Again/Faust


@rswfarms wrote:

Faust- on the economy as a whole, I see maybe a small chance of a collaspe. In the Iowa farmland market, I see another 15 to 20% increase for 2013, which is $2,500/acre on 2012 prices of $12,500/acre. Not to bad if it happens. I could be wrong, but I don't so the farmland increase being in the red, and this is with $4 corn in 2013. $4 corn would still produce a positive 2% overall ROI Ratio, not the 50 year average of 4 to 6%, but considering input costs and $4 corn average for 2013, 2% isn't 1/2 bad I feel. That's why I don't see any big Iowa farmland value drop in 2013.


rsw - I don't know, I think the U.S. economy is sinking fast and this stockmarket is about to top out.  We are headed for a pretty mean readjustment soon, and I think that will take some of the air out of the land balloon.  

 

I am really starting to feel antsy about this whole Economy including land. I think we have gone over the buffalo jump, and everything we are being fed by the politicos and talking heads is just wishful thinking.  We have another foot of snow coming next Tuesday, so markets should start collapsing Monday morning.  John

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Farmland Ceiling Raised…Again/Faust

These are certified yields for 2012 circled in red on a couple of farms.  On the 2nd farm had a hail storm that caused 80% damage in 2010:

 

2012 insurance.jpg

 

 

2012 insurance2.jpg

 

 

 

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Advisor

Re: Farmland Ceiling Raised…Again/Faust

The Fed and the policiticians have created the biggest ponzi scheme known to all mankind.

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Contributor

Re: Please get me up to speed on South America

I've been Rip Van Winkle for a while on a lot of this stuff.   Enjoying these discussions.

 

What about the effect of more and more acreage in S. America.   Seems like 10 - 15 years ago, there was lots of talk about the development of supply from down there keeping a lid on Midwest ag. 

 

What is the current state of affairs in your opinion?  Thank you.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Farmland Ceiling Raised…Again/Faust

In reguards to machine costs.  I have $240,000 ($160 per acre) tied up in machinary to farm my ground, definitely not new but it gets the job done.  Variable costs i.e. fuel ,r and m, insurance run $20,000 per year.  So total out of pocket yearly machine cost is $13.33 per acre.  Way below your $160 custom farm, (machine cost) per acre. Big ROI on farming your own ground, higher yield and lower cost.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Please get me up to speed on South America/Iowa Guy 1-Up to speed

Yes, Iowa Guy 1, seems every year now for 10 to 15 years now they "Talk" about SA soybean acres increasing, but it just never seems to be a "HUGE" amount. However, I haven't checked the SA acre increase for the right/correct numbers.lately to determine the actual real numbers

An off-the-record sales in my area recently of Northern Iowa brought over $14,000/acre. This was $181.50 per CSR Point, not too bad, I would say in the CSR Point per dollar column of the spreadsheet.

Can I ask Iowa Guy 1, if you are a current Iowa farmland owner, and how many acres you own? Thanks.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Farmland Ceiling Raised…Again/Faust

I personally think we are close to a top. That said about four hours after receiving a phone call I bought another 140 yesterday. Guess you could call it a calculated risk.
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Highlighted
Contributor

Re: Please get me up to speed on South America/Iowa Guy 1-Up to speed

Thanks.   Enjoy your posts.

 

No, I own no farmland.  I grew up on a farm in southern Iowa and in my 40s I milked cows on the weekends for a dairy farmer (I'm 51 now).   I'd might run beef cows when I get to be 60.

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Advisor

Re: Please get me up to speed on South America/Iowa Guy 1-Up to speed


@Iowa guy1 wrote:

Thanks.   Enjoy your posts.

 

No, I own no farmland.  I grew up on a farm in southern Iowa and in my 40s I milked cows on the weekends for a dairy farmer (I'm 51 now).   I'd might run beef cows when I get to be 60.


LMAO!  I think that is smart, by that time the farm crash will have occurred, the cow calf guys will have been gutted, and grain farmers will have been downsized by the cancellation of federal crop insurance, and high interest rates, and will be greeters at Wal-mart and there will be plenty of marginal farmland that will be going back to hay and the CRP will have been eliminated with all other government payments.  .  

 

But the smartest move you are making, is you may becoming back to the best part of Iowa . . . South of I-80.  Pass the popcorn and get me another Corona.   John 

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