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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Goldman warning on interest rates

Isc76cat, here is the problem half the country want to deficit spend on the military and tax cuts, the other half the country wants to deficit spend on entitlements and social causes.   As a politician to get elected, you need to be in favor of deficit spending on all of the above, unless you are a Chuck Schumer or Steve King, then you`re in a district or state that lets you "think out loud" and get re-elected.

 

In most areas, sure politicians can talk about "wasteful government spending" safe items like $400 toilet seats and university grants of million$ studying the mating habits of the fruit fly...sure we`re all against that.  But that is a tiny amount, entitlements are the biggest slice of the pie chart and no one is going to touch the 3rd rail and mention "grandma`s social security"...nope can`t ever do that!   Then they talk about fraud in welfare and requiring work to get on welfare, but National Public Radio is sure to run stories of how miniscule the fraud is and say "verifying fraud is more costly than just letting it go".

 

Government spending is so tied to the economy, that we can not cut our way out of this mess, the only Hail Mary pass is to attempt to grow out of it.

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Goldman warning on interest rates

BA  -  good  graph  -  good  grief   -  now  what  ?

 

Rising  interest rates,  rising  fuel  costs,  could  be  quite  a  ride , although  '' target ''  being  an  interesting  word  ? ?  

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Goldman warning on interest rates

K-289.  The risk is old debt someone has on variable rates.  Let`s say a farmer has $1 million in debt and miraculously is doing okay though this and has $50,000 after expense to live on.  Well interest rates go up 5 points and even he is scratching with the chickens.   All those hog buildings that have sprung up, many of those are owned by Farm Credit and leased to the farmer that contracts with the integrator.  The first 10 yrs the farmer puts very little in his pocket and maybe has a monthly payment of $9,000 to make, so how`s that going to pan out in rising interest rates???  Not to mention housing market, credit cards and everything else.

 

This bubble was built in a 0% interest economy, now if money is suddenly worth something, who`s gonna be without a chair when the music stops?   The national debt doubled during 0% interest, Morton buildings, new John Deeres, new Chevies, Channel seed, new kitchen counter tops, a lot of stuff was bought "pay later" ...well now is later. 

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lsc76cat
Veteran Advisor

Re: Goldman warning on interest rates

BA - I get all that about people and their "don't cut my part" attitudes.

Saw an article this morning about the sugar subsidy debate and it's so typical.

 

After this last budget was passed with one chamber led by a so called "disciple" of Ayn Rand I lost all hope.

We're headed for bankruptcy and some very hard lessons.

There will be alot of pain but I wonder if the sooner we get there the better.

There's no stopping it now.  I think I'll lay in some more ammo.

 

 

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Goldman warning on interest rates

The best posible outcome would be "no farm bill"..... defund it.  It is in fact a welfare bill with no other purpose than continued transfer of borrowed funds to anyone who claims a need.

But this congress of individuals who want so badly to get all the cream before the cow dies, will not have the fortitude to do it.

 

Watched the debate over a procedural vote in the house over lunch....... It is over.... the funding has been stolen by the begger who have the cheapest food in history....... and want it free and when they get it free, we will see a debate over taxpayer funded grocery delivery.  

We cannot aford to keep the internet up so the temps can email.

 

that is my optimistic view

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Goldman warning on interest rates

Don't  fret  -  your  tax  cut  savings  will  help  us,  experts  say - - -   

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