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Advisor

Re: How To Cope With Less Cash

BA, your country comes last if you oppose trade. You lose, Canada, Mexico, China wins.
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Honored Advisor

Re: How To Cope With Less Cash

Smokey...seriously, what am I missing here?  How is "this" better than "0" ?   That is if it would be 0.  Because at the end of the day we only sell corn and pork if it`s cheap, they don`t buy anymore "$7 corn" than they have to.

 

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Advisor

Re: How To Cope With Less Cash

BA, if it were not for Ag sales to those three countries, you can add more zeros to that deficit.  Penalizing Ag for doing its part is not sound economic policy, ever.  Mexico is the number one purchaser of corn, China number one in beans, Canada is our number one overall best trade partner.  You think Ag is in a depression now?  If you get your wish, this will look like a Sunday school picnic.

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Honored Advisor

Re: How To Cope With Less Cash

We been through a financial crisis, three super high price years, and now nearly three years of low prices ------all in the last 10 years.  

in that time I have not seen exports or domestic useage affected by price....  Nor has high price stopped useage or exports.

Those are old wives tales that have been proven wrong.

 

The inference that agriculture is a bright spot in the US Trade deficit is a bit of a hoax as well

 

A 16 billion bushel corn crop sold tomorrow at $7 per bushel to China ...... that right all of it if we could raise the average above 190......would not cover a third of the deficit with that one country.... in 2016

 

While we are on a search to find something to feel better about lets keep it local and just say we lost a little less money per acre this year than the county average....  Im sure we can still manipulate the expenses forward enough to prove that.

 

Our trade deficit to china  didn't seem to back off when corn went to $6+........ and exports did not stop either.

 

 

 

MW-FJ794_us_chi_20170405135037_MG.jpg

 

It is a good visual of the affects of the Clinton era trade deals.  Which includes NAFTA.

And it is only one country we loose money trading with.

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Honored Advisor

Re: How To Cope With Less Cash

Canada probably won`t change an iota with or without NAFTA, they`re screwing us $16 billion, which is pencil dust in the scheme of things.  Plus they shackle themselves with labour and ridiculous environmental laws...hey if they think they can compete with that, more power to `em.  Besides, they get too cocky and we won`t take their dirty tar sand oil.   

 

With Mexico, we get screwed every time the Mexican trucks cross their northern border.  Mexico threatens to take Argentinian corn at 80 cents higher...well maybe they need to do that awhile for an additude adjustment.  Cummins oil filters and John Deere cultivator shanks (we can`t bend a damned piece of iron in this country anymore???) get a tariff slapped on to cover our under-employment social costs.   They`ll come around, it`s just no one has stood up to them.

 

But as I've said, yes farm products a pawn in all of this, they need food and buy where it`s the cheapest, they aren`t just doing us favors.  If you want a farm bill that with do any good at all, it has to have production limitations, price supports and payment limitations but don`t look for that statement to get any "kudos" ...so we need to be pragmatic, farmers are going to produce themselves into the dirt as always.  Corn goes to $7 tomorrow for whatever reason and everyone will be booking double their fertilizer orders and plowing up mom`s Begonia garden...we`re no different than a bunch of damned rodents.

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Advisor

Re: How To Cope With Less Cash

Deficits are nice to talk about and nobody is arguing against the need to improve the balance of trade.  It is the strategy to achieve it that is up for debate.  Pre NAFTA, look at the numbers.  Now, look at current numbers and what might be lost if Trump recommends to Congress we cancel the agreement.  Until new unilateral agreements are in place, in 12-18 months or more, we will see unregulated tariff rate increases on our exports and market price declines, given the uncertainty where true value is.  Can you afford another 30 percent market drop?  In corn?  In beans?  Forget about wheat, Russia is the dominant player there now. 3cb47259-bf35-47af-91c3-d04c3982eb3d-original.jpg

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Advisor

Re: How To Cope With Less Cash

b4af0634-7c6a-4965-99a7-d8b65ae88a6d-original.jpgConsider this graph in light of uncertainty in export markets.  Go ahead, bet the farm.  What have you got to lose?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: How To Cope With Less Cash

Interesting points  Smokey, so with  ''exPerts'' on every street corner, seems we don't secure  info one liken to the tremendous example of pitfall of the pharmaceutical industry in  Puerto Rico ---

 

Reversal of tax policy can be devastating, along with an industry relying on a territory that has a fragile electrical grid with 47% of it's generation capacity on imported fluid oil  ? ? 

 

Examples might seem far away & fetched , although a long & winding road in our forefront ---  

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Advisor

Re: How To Cope With Less Cash

SW, we’ve not seen declines in exports because of the agreements we have in place.  Take them away, and you have increased uncertainty and an incentive for Mexico, Canada and China to make new agreements with our competitors.  If you follow China, note they recently changed the quality terms for acceptable FM in beans.  They dropped the maximum from 2% to 1%, effectively disqualifying nearly 60% of US production.  The day of their change, bean prices dropped. They don’t have to make dramatic changes, just a simple rule change and markets react. Borrowing an over used phrase from Trump, “believe me,” they already are talking to competitors and preparing to dominate trade agreements in the Pacific rim and elsewhere.

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