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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

I don't think a 3% long bond

would really hurt the real economy much at all at this point. 

That's only a wild hypothetical at this point anyway- the 10 yr. has gone from a low of .55 and currently 1.46.

But it would hurt the not real economy. That said, housing and the stock market are way overheated anyway, and could probably benefit from a bit of a dousing before they get out of hand and create a bigger problem down the road. Other sectors whould be ready to take the lead.

I think it would probably only hurt commodities if rising US rates led the rest of the world- which would probably push the dollar higher.

But the Fed is committed well into the future to continue to cap long rate through asset purchases. That's probably a losing effort in the long run but they can certainly slow the rise. With this Fed having "cooperated" with an administration seeking re-election to a greater degree than any in history, I think they'll bend over backwards not to kneecap the new one.

Protecting your "institution" you know.

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