If everyone were to Shrink Production

[wrightcattle]

By say 25%, that forces All customers to a " hand to mouth" buying position.

And the USA govt itself is forced to a " hand to mouth" position as well.

i think the afore would be an excellent method of once again fixing world agri trade.

the USA govt caused the current mess and if we need to Weaken our brain dead electeds in dc the hard way, so be it.

[BA Deere]

If we all could/would do that, it`d be great but as it is now the endusers would just import cheaper needs, the government would have to be involved to tariff any grain coming in. The government wants cheap food, but we`ve had it so long that I wonder if there`s anyone left that remembers the policy, as it`s been on auto-pilot for so long.

And the farmers themselves, very few have the financial wherewithal to cut their production 25% for one year. 🙂 Ironically "capitalism" is to blame for low prices, we plant higher populations of the best seed (or lower populations of beans) and fertilize it the best that the fertilizer reps recommend at the "free" steak dinners they invite us to and voila! If mother nature cooperates should we be surprised what USDA and Pro farmer finds while trespassing in our fields? 

And the price of our land, whether it`s 0$ or $500 acre cost for us to control it one year, that is a fixed cost, the best thing for an individual to do is to squeeze the most production out of that piece of ground each year.  Therein lies the equation.

[JimMeade]

NFO.  Been there, didn't work.

[BA Deere]

I think bottomline, a operation needs to be positioned so as when beans are $10 they are sold ..or maybe even sold at $9.85 and that small "not negative cashflow" is used for machinery replacement.  And your inputs are in line or can quickly brought into line ie, not prepaying a lot so as when beans spend time at $6 it won`t break you.  

Of course all of that might mean giving up your dream of farming the entire county and attending land rent auctions and paying $400/acre rents and getting your picture on the cover of The Rolling Stone with 350 bushel yields.

And enjoy the good times, cause they never last...got that concert T-shirt   🙂

[wrightcattle]

25% of your acres. 

That gets rid of corn and bean acres.

whats hurting USA agri is they act like they're only a 1 trick pony.

[wrightcattle]

Is corn and beans.

face it ,  there's 2 much product grow because it's perceived as Easy to grow. Easy to sell, Easy to handle etc etc..

heck it's just a little machine work w some weed spray too.

theres other uses for land besides just corn and beans.

hay and pasture for example and there's a bunch of other Crops that can be diversified to also.

[clayton58]

Are you wanting to wreck the cattle market too?

[BA Deere]

Well, around here cropland rents for $250 and pasture rents for $50...so guess what it`s going to be used for   🙂    I`m not saying 10yrs from now things won`t be different, but presently you couple those economics with the age of farmers being high and livestock being a young person`s occupation.   There are just places in the Midwest that will be where the corn and beans are raised, like I suppose rice is grown in certain areas, tobacco in some and cotton in some.   Trouble is like the FFA reporter`s statement "stationed by the ear of corn, corn is grown in all 50 states like where all future farmers meet"  I know I butchered it, but the cotton and tobacco buys can raise corn...as damned wet as it is, I`m thinking of giving the rice growers some competition   🙂

I guess if I had a magical wand, I`d "subsidize inefficiency" and get back to 2 or 3 families on a square mile "50 sows, 20 cows, 12 milk cows and chickens on a 240" .  I don`t know but it probably employed more workers building a 4020 John Deere than the robot manufactured behemoths they make today.  IMO the golden era of farming was during the years that the 4020 was made, a hog buying station and salebarn in every town, things kinda been going down hill since, empty school buildings and such. No need for the "24 hour fitness centers" and the medical clinics weren`t so full.

But, look at the value that is shipped out of this country in grain, seems the only way we sell it is when it`s below our real cost of production, if the farmer can`t get at the very least $4 corn $10 beans, we are losing our butts.  Each bushel we export on corn it`s a 1/3lb of potash 1/2lb of phosphorus and all those micro nutrients and fuel...and we lose money most years doing it!   We lose a dime thickness of precious top soil every year and we have to beg foreigners to take our grain....are we insane??????

But alas, I am not in charge only a rider on this out of control rollercoaster.

[wrightcattle]

Insurance price for corn this fall will once again be between $3.40 and $3.50.

its the afore and tonnage that make corn for example Easy.

theres a "shot" for higher priced corn and beans on into 2019.

just depends on a BR crop failure and "Uncle" in dc.

face it if your losing dough farming now, perhaps you need to make some changes...just depends on your other outside income.

so pasture rents for less there...its because livestock is a lot more work than driving a tractor.

[BA Deere]

I hate to be too gloom & doomy, but I think the point unfortunately is row crop rents will eventually be driven down to "pasture rent" prices, then even $5 beans will work....gulp!  I think that will be the endgame, ...perhaps row crop ground will even be cheaper than pasture, because if you`re 75 are you gonna want to seed down pasture, build fence and go to the friendly banker and borrow $500,000 to buy 400 heifers?   Especially when that 75 yr old corn jockey hasn`t stepped in a cow pie for 50 years.  And, if everybody gets into cattle, then that niche is bloom off the rose...I mean if it wasn`t for these droughts in the west, feeder cattle would be 90 cents again for 6 weights like it was 15yrs ago, then there`ll be long faces under the Stetsons.