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Veteran Advisor

Re: Making money in 2020

Ag  Sec.  said  we  are  blessed  that  we  are  over  productive,  needing  foreign  markets  to  rely  on   -  interesting  -  -  -

Over  production  being  a  blessing , coupled  with  Gov.  intervention ,  EQIP   buffet  -   wala   market  depressions  -  -  -  

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Honored Advisor

Re: Making money in 2020

K-289, I know this is speaking the unspeakable, but if corn went to 7 bucks, you`d hear land rent auctions "$550/acre 3yr term"  $400/bag seedcorn $900 potash new tractors new combines Morton buildings, pictures on twitter of cocky doodles in the backseats of Limousines sipping Champagne with their trophy wife.  It wouldn`t be long and $7 corn wouldn`t be enough.  When $7 corn went, it went lower further and faster than many of us could adjust...never got the Limousine ride, but my trophy Wife and I sip Coke and diet Coke in the front seat of our Chevy   Smiley Happy

Advisor

Re: Making money in 2020

Always did seem likely that once they quit moving the goalposts toward the ethanol goal every year there was going to be a hard adjustment.

'12, coming right on the tail of it, pushed that back a couple years.

The other thing that was bound to happen was that the preference of hot money for commodities died, as it always does. Giveth and taketh away- and if history is any indication, we're a good decade away from when that starts building up again- should be another commodity peak around 2040.

Visiting with large renters back a decade ago I'd suggest that maybe it was a good strategy to begin a mild strategic retreat. I think that, to a man, they all thought that was the craziest thing ever.

The only way you ever get a head in the cash rent game is to be controlling land before the boom starts. There are very long periods in Death Valley between those events.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Making money in 2020

So  having  a  MEGA   EnterpriZe   operation,  with  imported  labor,  tax  payer  infu-$ions,  rural  depopulation,  and  of  course,  maybe  the  business  model  of   Chapter  _  Bankruptcy  to  reconcile  it  all  - ?

MEan while  "" I'm  the  biggest '''  ,  look  at  me  headliner  -  will  sooner  or  later  be,   dust  in  the  wind  -   -   -

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Advisor

Re: Making money in 2020

BA, better be careful talking about your Trophy wife.....remember the blowhard on Ag Forum that got all twisted up worrying about how good looking my queen was a few years ago....even thought he had eye witness reports saying she wasn't all that.....lol.

as long as you have nutz and boritz, you always know you have at least two "tools" in the drawer.....what a pair.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Making money in 2020

Thanks to technology....... any set of boots and ball cap can do what we do...... and when it looks like a good place to park capital and profit with bigger vision..... a new pair will come in from either coast and show us how its done.  Like the recent Forbes article about the biggest land holders in the US.  And for a donation they will get a conservation/native species tax favored classification for doing what we did for free.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Making money in 2020

Hey Red, you and I both know the secret that if you`re married, you better believe that your wife is a "trophy wife"  Smiley Wink

Egos are pretty big out there, I don`t know if the BTO i was referring to will read what I said (probably not) but it`s right on his twitter page, I shouldn`t say anymore about him.  But he`s either going to be the next "Harry Stine" or take advantage of the new $12 million Chapter 12 bankruptcy limits, not much in between.

The trouble with farming doesn`t have so much to do with trade and profitability as it does with no one satisfied with their operation`s  size, some will work off the farm, some would put lottery winnings into a farm, some would put in jeopardy a "critical mass" inheritance all to farm at maximum scale. 

It`s like Catch-22 "you have to be crazy to be a fighter pilot and crazy people aren`t qualified to be fighter pilots".  That greasy seedcorn cap is a expensive status symbol.  Beer drinkers run out of pretzels, so they get more and then they run out of beer and then they run out of pretzels...on and on.  The beer drinker gets drunk and the farmer wonders why he`s broke.  

 

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