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Honored Advisor

Music stopped today, did you find a chair?

We`re sort of in a "garden spot" here, as prices rose fungicide and other spending on the crop happened....if anything still isn`t already fungicided, I wonder if the planes were called back after 11:00 central time today  Smiley Happy

Cashflows will remain  1980s tight barring another unprecedented black swan supply bailout, I don`t know how a report can proclaim yields on a crop that is 2 or 3 weeks behind normal maturity. Soybeans have a lot more pods to put on to make 48bpa.  

Nothing would please me more than to be wrong and a black swan would get back to a water treading $4 corn and $8.75 beans.

It`s gonna be a tough one.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Music stopped today, did you find a chair?

Yes it is,  we have a nearly impossible production task and absolutely no support from the rest of the population or their employees at usda.   Thumbing their noses at us and throwing their darts at the face on the wall.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Music stopped today, did you find a chair?

A more responsible direction would be to hold off a month on a report that comes to conclusions from insufficient data.   This isn`t a normal year in maturation at this time, maybe they have a good handle on acres but not yield.  On 9 yrs out out 10, this report probably does set the tone in a generally correct direction..but group 1.4 beans planted on June 15th in areas where planting group 2.3 on May 1 is normal, you just can`t conclude "a acre of beans is a acre of beans" yieldwise. 

I have welcomed the challenge of tougher times in agriculture to test my abilities and to look for the old bag of tricks that $7 corn made unnecessary for me to use.  Having to buy hay last winter caused me to reassess being in the cattle business,

I have good land in pasture and hay, I`ve improved my genetics and cattle are the one commodity that hasn`t fallen as deeply as other farm ventures.  But time is also a "commodity" mowing, raking, baling and hauling hay is $10/hr jobs when I can make $25/hr part time off the farm.  Maybe I`m in the green on the cattle balance sheet IF I don`t figure my time...so the cattle gotta go.   

But on a short hay year when you buy hay "one month to get by" and that turns into 3 months of buying hay at record prices and now the Tyson plant fire, cattle were $6 cheaper because of that fire.  So I don`t know if I`ll make money or this year, you just have so much money tied up for such slim margin of profit. I`ll leave the cattle to the feedlot guy that I visited the other day 1600hd in 2 barns, black Angus on slats, no bedding, built like rhinoceros all roided up, goin` to St Joe when they`re ready.  

The time I save from no cattle put more into hogs and crops and phase out of hogs within 10 years...I`m not getting any younger Smiley Happy   But these are all sensible decisions that I might not have had to may were there not tough times on the farm, I would`ve took my $7 corn check and subsidized the cattle and not gave it a second thought. 

And also asking my Wife this spring if I should go bull shopping, well she doesn`t see the cattle every day and isn`t attached, but she does do the farm books and entered all those weekly checks I wrote for hay, so she was a common sense different set of eyes on things.   Women generally don`t like cattle, so if you really don`t want to sell, you better not ask your wife`s advice on getting rid of them.   Smiley Happy

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Music stopped today, did you find a chair?

BA  -  Sounds  like  my  household ,   as  livestock  habits  seem  to  get  a  hook  in  us  -   -   -

I'm  going  to  watch  Yankton S D  fat  sale   today  -  and  witness   the  havoc  -   -   -

$25,000.oo   herd  bulls  are  NOT  on  the  agenda,  unless   you want  to  buy  one Smiley LOL  -   -   - 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Music stopped today, did you find a chair?

"money travels the lest path of resistance"   I think the tough times make us survivors better farmers, but to survive we`ll have to do a lot of trimming.   I hear pasture ground is at an all time high price, good crop land is a little higher but of course off of it`s all time highs.  

In Voc Ag class (FFA) in school we were in a beef curriculum and had a hot shot substitute teacher from a community college for a few days and what he told us was "In this part of Iowa, I don`t know why any farmer would mess with cattle, just row crop this good ground" for the past 35 years that statement has haunted me.  My Dad would say "everybody has some scrub ground to put in pasture or a little high ground that could be rotated into hay and on a year when it`s soft corn, it`s good to have livestock".   And everyone`s situation is different, to get that top, top dollar you have to have pens of 200, uniform rhinoceros`, 1400lb, meat wagons.  That`s the high stakes room at the casino, go big or go home.   i`m already home and don`t want to go broke.   Smiley Happy

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Music stopped today, did you find a chair?

Some  outfit  in  Utah  had   900   -    95#  lambs  -  Nov- Dec  delivery   - $1.50  /  lb  ,   Diversify  -   -   -  

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Honored Advisor

Re: Music stopped today, did you find a chair?

Were those feeder lambs?  They want fat lambs at 140lbs don`t they.   I`ve had enough of the damned sheep when I was a kid, I`ve seen where they`ll find a twine wrap it around their neck and hang themselves like Jeffery Epstein, they are dumb always looking for a way to kill themselves Smiley Happy

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Music stopped today, did you find a chair?

Build   a  sheep  confinement  Smiley LOL

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