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Packard27
Senior Contributor

Re: No Farmland Bubble?

Sorry. My guess is that most folks over 50 probably got my tongue firmly in cheek joke.

 

It is sort of like advising people to simply "buy low and sell high" and all will be well. The stone cold truth is that we have seen this before and will, if we are fortunate enough to live long enough, see it again. Best wishes.

 
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hardnox
Advisor

Re: No Farmland Bubble?

Land has come down some and will probably come down some more. But that is a lot different than the liquidation of a leveraged bubble.

 

I could be wrong about even those things that I'm highly confident of but here's the one thing that I am supremely confident of- interest rates aren't going to rise- if anything we'll see a 30 yr yield under 2 before it is over.

 

And thus any asset that throws off any amount of income will be well bid. That is how it has to be- our system works on rising asset values and fails when they fall, particularly after relying entirely on falling interest/rsing assets over the last 30 years.

 

And as always, the transmission of ramped asset prices to the real economy is weak. So it does have an end point, somewhere, but only when the rats and rot have really completely eaten the guts out of the real economy.

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hardnox
Advisor

Re: No Farmland Bubble?

BTW, here are the implications of the conditions I describe- a market that got somewhat ahead of itself but isn't highly leveraged or in forced liquidation mode.

 

So that means, unfortunately, that there probably won't be many great buys any time, either.

 

Probably if you begin with the present as the baseline a small negative return for many, many years- slight rental income minus slightly larger unrealized capital loss.

 

A really big bleah, like most everything else in this (probably) lengthy end stage phony baloney economy.

 

Drip, drip, drip while people who control the chokepoints of the economy continue to siphon off enough to get wealthy (and turn the generally zero sum economy a bit more negative as they take their bit.)

 

And, if past is any indication, the parasites will spend a small amount of their lucre convincing enough of the victims that it isn't the case  (and directing them to other scapegoats) and thus it will continue.

 

As far as something directly in our wheelhouse, think the Kochs and the nitrogen cartel.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: No Farmland Bubble?

thanks 

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: No Farmland Bubble?

H -  Knox  -There being a lot of interesting substance in your wheelhouse line which reminds me of the new and improved conservative meanings of the new century we are witnessing --- right know i am finding it very interesting the mind set of the  RETIReMENT - I R A  business model - glad to '' take ''  your investment $$$ although I have my corp. list of 50 excuses of why  NOT to send you  $$ back -  leave it in there for your estate and then we can disperse the funds due to your heirs - the question being you really don't have any where to park it besides the market and you don't need the  $$$ anyway - glad I'm not starting my Monday's out walking through that  '' corp  door '' punching my time card --- This is  WHY LAND IS A SAFE PARKING SPOT ---

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tree fmr
Advisor

Re: No Farmland Bubble?

Jim,
Poweshiek county, 4 miles north of hiway 6.
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Kay/NC
Honored Advisor

Re: No Farmland Bubble?

Sound sort of like one of those party balloons that slowly deflate over time.  Beats a bubble, though. 

 

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