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Pushing on a string
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text
US 2/10 yield curve is the flattest its been since late '08.
Nobody except banks borrow in the Fed Funds rate anyway, so in terms of stimulating/cooling the economy by changing it it is almost all about influencing longer rates (hence QE, to squash the long rate lower).
But even here, no QE, one rate hike and near the end of a credit cycle when inflation normally would be becoming a problem, long rates are limp.
I predict that negative rates will meet with the same response if it comes to that.
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Re: text
Supposedly, we`ve been in a recovery since 2009....(I guess thank George W Bush for that?) but this recovery could only be sustained with 0% interest rates. Now since we`ve been in this "recovery" for so long, top notch economists are saying that this "recovery" is running out of steam and the next president regardless who he or SHE is will have a recession to deal with.
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Re: text
Guess it just needs a little of that old vitamin Austerity?
Or tax cuts for The Makers?
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Re: text
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Re: text
And online.
Bricks and mortar retail is stuggling. The US has something like 3X the per capita retail square footage as the next country.
A lot of that isn't going to get repurposed into Tractor Supply stores and indoor go-kart tracks and somebody's holding the loans on it. Even if one of the companies like Hobby Lobby that looks for distressed places does happen to go in it'll be at .50 on the dollar or less.
That was actually one of the scariest but mostly undiscussed things about the financial crisis. For about 6 months darn near every suburban burger shack and strip mall was worth approximately 0 marked to market, making nearly every single bank, big and small, technically insolvent.
The recovery, such as it was, began when the regulators agreed to permit banks to maintain the previous values on their books and in some cases the properties have recovered most or all of it.
This is a much slower moving problem but still a problem. If banks take losses in the CRE sector they're also going to be extending less credit to anything new.
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Re: text
Commercial properties have to be in a hurt..from our little county seat main street, to cities in our region, they are going dark. In less than two years, our village lost: sign shop, vintage / resale shop, grocery chain store, and opened then closed a hugely overambitious restaurant.
Florist is closing June 1.
Family Dollar and c-stores are all that will be left. Oh, and court related day reporting center, mental health, and lawyers...
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Re: text
Around here there`s been a rash of small town lumberyards closing. It`s kind of bad because they carried a better quality of lumber than the Big Box yards. They are higher priced, but the 2x6s weren`t knotty and so bowed that you could strap `em on your feet and use them for skis like what you sort through at the Big Box lumberyards.
I thought the small lumberyards were filling a niche for those that wanted quality and local contractors would use them exclusively and I`m sure got a volume discount. Could that mean that the richest people in small towns are putting off a remodeling job or steering their contractor to Menards to cut the costs to the bare minmum?
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Re: text
Most independent limberuards were gone in our region by 2009-2010. The vast majority of homes built in our NC county are manifactured, mobile homes/ doublewides.
Most of those are sold on land/ home packages, or the seller agrees to take the land a person owns on collateral, then takes the whole shebang, when the buyer falls behind on payments. Then, the subsequent buyer falls, behind, and so on...
Overcollateralization is an ugly way to gain land ownership...it is especially foisted upon the poor, minorities, and women.
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Re: text
Supply and demand are less and less isolated. The adjustment to a world economy is painful for us and will be worse for our kids.