The news from Ukraine
The Ukrainian-Russian conflict: what is going on?
We now live in the second wave of anxiety fearing the invasion of the Russian Army into Ukraine (the first wave was in April).
The Russian puppets in Crimea are anxious to occupy the South East Ukraine to establish a corridor between the peninsula and Rostov oblast because they unable to provide the necessary amount of food and goods supplied from Russia to Crimea directly by ferries. Also they want to guarantee the supply of the fresh water from Dnieper River.
The Ukrainian military forces promise to finish the military operation in a couple of weeks provided the supply of weapons and “volunteers” from Russia has stopped.
But Putin is really crazy. The guy admiringly cited Hitler at the meeting with the Jew rabbis. His propagandists claim that Hitler was absolutely positive politic before the 1939 etc.
Just on Wednesday, August, 6th, Putin signed the decree that bans the import of Ag commodities and foodstuffs from countries that introduced sanctions to Russia. These include the EU, Norway, the USA, Canada, and Australia. This is the sheer madness because Russia is self-sufficient in food for about 50 percent. Now Russian government is hastily negotiates the possibility of supplying meat and dairy from Latin America (Chile, Argentina, Brazil, and Ecuador) and vegetables from Turkey. But from the EU Russia imports mainly added-value high-quality foodstuffs like salami, cheese, chocolate, etc. that will be very difficult to replace from other sources or to produce domestically in necessary volumes. Many Russian analysts foresee hard times for the Russian population.
The western farmers are very anxious to know how these Russian sanctions in return may affect their business. The answer may seem very odd but it is: practically very faintly!
The Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan formed the so called “Custom union”, and now there is no customs control between this states. It means that the banned Western products will be imported to Russia via Belarus and Kazakhstan where they will be repacked and relabeled like “made in Belarus” or “product of Kazakhstan”.
There seems to be no reason to worry by the Australian dairy producers as the Far East Russia has no other way to feed its population there but to import dairy products and lamb meat (and maybe sugar) from Australia and New Zealand.
Now Russia seeks the agreement with China for deliveries of pork. It will be a real fun if some American companies like “Smithfield Foods” (owned by the Chinese company “Shuanghui International”) will deliver the American pork labeled “product of China” to Russia directly.
And even in the worst case in which American foodstuff will be cut off one way or the other from Russia American farmers will benefit from the expanded shipments of feeds (corn and soybeans) to China (which is already a major importer) to enable Chinese farmers to grow pigs for Russia.
The next couple of weeks will clarify the situation. Either Russia will eventually have calmed down and withdraw or we will see the very hot fall with the unpredictable outcome not for only Russia and Ukraine but for the whole world.