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Honored Advisor

What does agriculture look like at the other end of "this"?

Now there`s "12 row farmers" with off farm gigs and on the other end of the spectrum there`s the "36 row, 10mph planter farmers" ...so who wins out?  Does the 12 row guy keep plugging away with the same machinery and UPS delivered boxes from Shoup?   Does the 36 row guy get a new 54 row planter and drive 12mph and take some of the retired 12 row guys` acres?    Or I guess a 3rd option of the 36 row guy downsizes to a 24 row planter and the 12 row planter guy either goes up to 16 row, some downsizing to 8 row? 

 

Some 36 row guys are in trouble, maybe a little more than the 12 row guys, the volume advantage has an opposite effect  when profits are gone.  This year was supposed to be a "get back on your feet year" with thoughts of selling $4 corn and 250 bushel yields, instead for some it was locking in $3.50 corn and praying their ankle high, June 20th corn will make 150 bushel.  

 

There will be repercussions of this year post-fall, if winter 2018 banker meetings were precarious, the winter 2019 banker meetings will have less pieces of pie to give everyone.  I don`t know if livestock will bail anyone out this year, weekend ribeyes not grilled because of 50 degree rain won`t be doubly consumed the next weekend with 70 degree misty, mosquitoy weather...it`s runway behind us and the grove of trees rapidly approaching out the windshield.

 

There are area pockets of good crops and individual farmers in some neighborhoods will do alright.  I mean there is some 200 bushel corn out there and if it isn`t priced yet, they`ll get $4 maybe $5 for it.  And for them there will be pie ala mode all around and maybe look at the new to them 8230 tractor to replace the 8300 with 11,000 hrs.

 

Stay safe everyone.

6 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: What does agriculture look like at the other end of "this"?

Eventually  a  serving  of  humble  pie  special  appears  on  the  menu,  even  at  the  marketing  table,  in  having  to  deliver  $3.70  October  corn  testing  24%  -   -   -

Integration - consolidation  has  evened  out  the  livestock  sector,  with  the  conversation  of  free  fertilizer  -  -  -   

Honored Advisor

Powerball. Let’s talk

There are a few, financially strong enough(or Done/with nothing to loose). Who will bite on usda’s token gift to the loud minority, hemp production.  

I call it the icing on the “plant 19” cake.

Good luck with that, and thank you, in advance, for contributing to this years “feel good” movement before we throw it into the closet of irrational ideas.  

Mine farm I know of is dedicating 1500 acres to this hand labor financial giant, knowing up front a failure rate is there,  they have 70 third world workers flying in —- the jokes just keep coming.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Powerball. Let’s talk

SW  =  Thinking back on our discussion a few  weeks  ago  on  the  Prevent Plant -  and  a  few  thought  we  were  whistling  -  hemp  maybe  -  although  it  was  prevent  defense  -  maybe  - Smiley LOL 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Powerball. Let’s talk

I know more about it now (the administration of hemp ideas).  It is a mine field of risk---- right up to destroying it all if you get a few hot days and the "OAC" content goes too high.  And is designed to increase hand labor -- what is with that?  Smells a little like social engineering for the planned "poor".  Cash flow nightmare potential is 13 on a scale of 8.

Very little deep thought happens when the reason for the idea is fear of something irrational.

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Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: Powerball. Let’s talk

Google the great jerusalem artichoke circus.  This is were i see growing of hemp. Be in on the ground floor by selling the seed to the other saps.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Powerball. Let’s talk

At least if you can't harvest it and have to "destroy" the crop you can stand downwind. 

Your pain will ease and maybe you won't care so much anymore!!Smiley Wink

 

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