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Veteran Advisor

What if ??

been watching several message boards comments.......and mixing in what some of the advisors are saying, along with some of the data

from USDA, and some comments made by usda and federal reserve.

 

What if....according to what I've reading, that we have another good crop this year, in wheat, corn and soybeans.....the fed reserve still believes

things are not good, and some of the usda people are now saying, they don't see a commodity price turn around for perhaps another

10 years !!!!

everyone is telling us there is plenty of grain.....and looking at good stuff from south America, and maybe here in the USA.

 

if all is true, we are not going to see prices get better.......factor in rising production costs....and cost of living.......and healthcare cost,

that might blow all the other expenses out of the water..........where do we go ?

 

I don't think many can take much more, another year many will fall.......and two years...even more...and no profit for 3 straight years ???

 

 

 

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17 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: What if ??

Farmers have perseverance, the "first 3 bad years) if a farmer`s truck is broken down and can`t afford to fix it, he`ll pull gravity wagons out of the grove and use them, get higher operating loans, plant cheaper seed and somehow make those 3 bad years.   When it gets beyond the 3 years, it gets more tricky to survive, the wagons are getting even more worn out, the tractor pulling the wagons gets more wear & tear, the cutting of inputs take a toll on individual yield.  And that higher operating note that actually masked living expenses is getting harder to pay or maybe can`t and another 80 has to be mortgaged to cover.  Some will swallow hard and do it believing that "the Sun will come out tomorrow♪ bet ur bottom dollar".

 

But 10 more years of bad?  There has to be a yield cutting disaster that will bail the farmer out in spite of himself, doesn`t there?  If not and we are continued to be blessed with 10 more over tend/below cost of production crops.  There will have to be flies dropping off and not just in this country, one has to think that $7 corn made a lot of 3rd world swamp holes profitable to use the stick in the mud planting technique, now with <$3 corn..."Aw let the water buffalo graze it".

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Honored Advisor

Re: What if ??

COP goes down.   Technology slows and IMO needs to for a couple of decades.   But probably will not.......... It will probably just serve those who can afford it.

 

Crop choices are fewer and cheaper forage type crops...... wheat as a multi use crop lives on....But not for the Food giants that own seed tech.

Cattle harvest instead of stand in a lot with expensive feed procession.

Young leave the farm for robotic jobs, or trade jobs---- or the best social programs

Poverty goes back to rural america and food supply takes on new meaning.

Security becomes a real issue.... locking the bin doors?

Life expectancy declines.

 

 

IMO,  three issues weigh on our next ten years and beyond ........ Lets see how they go.........

1.) the political change that follows twenty years of "Utopia" promises and their social damage(in dog years)...... England, US, and now France have voted against their established political parties.  That is a sign of a real disconnect in politics......memories of "let them eat cake"??  And the "Environment" with no concern for the publics environment.

2).  The World wide Debt,  is there enough economic potential world wide to pay it, or  avoid its damage...can technology continue to carry it?... etc etc....

3).   The Worlds Unhappy and Unemployed(poverty extremes between haves and have nots,, like in the years preceding WW1)------- as technology proves to be able to feed the world with far less producers........ our spoiled protesters could get overshadowed when the Iphone bills can't be paid.

 

Avoiding the crash of 2008 on a credit card is going to have a long hangover with side affects. 

 

It is not far fetched thinking to see $20/ bushel corn and still be in trouble financially.  Or we see unemployment levels in farming that reflect our city neighbors.  After all it doesn't take much skill to raise corn these days.

 

 

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: What if ??

Sounds like we are going to need another government program. Vote accordingly. There are still plenty of rich people out there. And at some point they have enough and need to start paying their fair share.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: What if ??

We keep hearing that the rich need to pay their fare share. So who are the rich? What is their fare share? And who gets to define those terms?
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Honored Advisor

Re: What if ??

The "rich" are the half of the country that pays federal income taxes...and state and local and property taxes.   Their "fair share" as always should be MOAR!!  Those who get to define the rich are the biggest mouths (close contest as they all have big mouths) are liberals in politics and the media.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: What if ??

Most commonly used answers to your questions:

   1.  The rich = anybody that makes more than "me"..

   2.  Their fair share = whatever it takes so I don't have to pay.

   3.  Who defines = anybody that doesn't have to pay.

 

Senior Advisor

Re: What if ??

Rich is anyone who doesn't vote dem.

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Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: What if ??

I think we might opt  to add money to the AG economy by contacting Jared's sister and bring some of those  $500,000 Visa  - investor- folks from China to get things energized in the Midwest ?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: What if ??

Maybe Obama can donate part of his $3 million speaking fee to Farm Aid?
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