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Honored Advisor

Re: What`s the plan for next year?

SW, it wouldn`t take much in the scheme of things to manipulate farm commodities lower or higher, because as important as we think we are, we`re small potatoes.  Look at corn 14 billion bu X $3/bu is $42 billion    4 billion bu beans X $8 is $32 billion.   Then you look at the Bill Gates` Warren Buffets, Zuckerberg, Elon Musk Jeff Bezos ...any on of them could buy the nation`s one year of corn & bean production and still be billionaires.   And I ain`t even mentioning Eurotrash like Rothschilds, Soros, Queen of Engalund and such.  

 

So a nation or corporation would easily have the money to control prices (I`m not saying they are, but they could)  especially on the futures market.   Like in the early 80`s the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market, but they were small potatoes like us farmers (not swamp dwellers) and got their butts handed to them.

 

But I hear from Creighton University that bankers are denying half the loan requests.  I don`t think I`m speaking out of turn here in predicting that it`ll be a bloodbath come spring `19 and the crop insurance price is $2.75 corn and $7.25 beans.   Bankers will be denying opp notes right & left and that may not be a bad thing.  Because if you`re sub beakeven prices and the banker carries you "another year" then you have 2 yrs expenses to make up for at the same sub breakeven prices.   Like a gambler just "double or nothin`" the more he loses, drove to the casino in a Cadillac and takes a Greyhound bus home with broken kneecaps.

 

Locally it`s gonna be bad "here" because breakeven at $9.50 60 bu beans and 200bu $3.50 corn.  Well now we`re looking at 140bu corn at $2.75  and 40bu $7.25 beans.   A humane banker would put farmers out of their misery in that predicament and you can`t blame them.  Kind of a double whammy.

 

 

I`ve been sayin` 3 years now "well crop insurance will bail the farmer out this year, but wait til next year!"   thing is, those 3 years we had great yields and prices were just good enough that ins companies didn`t have to write out checks, this year "here" the friggin` insurance companies are going to get writer`s cramp from writing out all those checks. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: What`s the plan for next year?

In our area crop ins has been used several years. It is worthless after 2. Crop Ins does not work if used.
W. KS (south half) had very little wheat and is now loosing fall dry land crops to heat. Drove from liberal to
Learned in dying corn and milo yesterday.
Chemical fallow looks like a dead practice. Most all fallow fields were mechanically worked and crop weeds said chems are not working. (Also says “we’re out of cash”)
No chem fallow. That is a big change in central KS.
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Honored Advisor

Re: What`s the plan for next year?

What may be the start of in farming is the "restaurant phenomena" you know, where a young idealistic chef starts a restaurant new stoves, silverware, tablecloths tables and chairs and goes broke in 6 months.  Another guy buys it for 70 cents on the dollar and goes broke too, it might take the 4th or 5th owner that buys the assets cheap enough at 10 cents on the dollar to make it work.  

 

There isn`t many secrets in farming anymore, tractors, combines and sprayers monitor and steer themselves.  Any flunkee that can play a video game can be a farmer these days as far as the operation.   So all you need is a manager with brains to know to plant as early as possible without mudding it in and spray when the DuPont guy tells you to and sidedress what the crop advisory service recommends.  Harvest when the Gavilon guy will take it.  

 

My concern is if the carryover supply in the US gets high enough, then land prices will be affected, forced sales will occur and prices will have a downward cascade effect.  And voila! prices will get cheap enough that multinational corporations will get a go signal.   Land has a long way to drop to ever "cashflow" again, but when it does happen again, it probably won`t be the hated neighborhood BTO snapping it up, he`ll maybe get a management job. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: What`s the plan for next year?

BA,
The real damage will happen way before next spring and we have end users very concerned now.
And farm attitude will probably not recover by spring.
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Honored Advisor

Re: What`s the plan for next year?

Let them eat cake
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Veteran Advisor

Re: What`s the plan for next year?

SW  -  BA   good  points  -  although  interesting  on  the   ''    hush  ''  from  the  land  grant  folks  as  to  like  a  seminar  on  mechanical  tillage  - maybe ? 

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Senior Contributor

Re: put in an annual Hay

Crop like japenese millet and hay it. Generally yields 10 to 20 ton per of 18 to 20+% prot hay. OR Graze it. The afore cropping Is where the money is. The darn grain deal is just welfare starve out courtesy of uncle Sam.
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Honored Advisor

Re: What`s the plan for next year?

20 ton yield needs $750 per acre bailing and transportation costs. Won’t net enough to pay property taxes.
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Veteran Contributor

Re: What`s the plan for next year?

Chapter 7
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Senior Contributor

With heifer slaughter up 8% and

Cow slaughter up 11% both over 2017......hmmmm seems like that reduces future beef supplies a bunch.

 

and with the hot export market for USA beef.....hmmmmm seems like 1 could do well by diversifying the business model some.

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