BA.
We will downsize some.
Bubble pop time for technology? maybe close. Affordability is difficult and the large tech firms are using federal regulation to try to keep farms on the hook. Look for most tech for agriculture to be overpriced fo all but large farms and required by regulation. (fuel efficiency and emissions already at those levels).
We will change some of our poduction practices back to mechanical weed control. We find the effectiveness window of chem fallow getting smaller and the personnel who can manage it hard to find.
Probably, the highest risk for the well managed large farms I watch (in this area of large farms for decades), is the current talented person managing chmical application. They better be thinking about how they replace him or change to accomidate that loss of effeciency.
Effeciency is the game winner in chem weed control. The key to that is in the mind of the guys in the sprayers. When conditions are right one operator can average 170 acres per hour with one support person, but poorly managed can get 50 acres/hr..........(in mean climates - that a bad cost blowup and respraying is unaffordable) The liability of extreme volatility gly replacements like Gramoxone and its health risks will be a litigation nightmare and uninsurable with its drift and toxicity issues.
We will continue to be honest with ourselves about the real problems in agriculture. We complain about the new "super ball" market and lots of stuff, but the real issue for our tax forms in 2018, once again, is red ink because we spend more than we make, at these prices, whether we spend it or use up equity to make ourselves feel better. Better prices are needed, but I would love cheaper costs.
Continuing federal lies about inflation the last 10-15 yeas do not change the reality. The continued hiding of the cost of technology and regulation in the rising cost of equipment and vehicles, communications, seed, freight, property taxes, land prices etc etc. Most of these inflating costs-(like the 50 mpg requirement coming) are wrapped in federal funding or regulation that makes them unresponsive to lower sales. Most of our costs are becoming very unresponsive to demand changes. Real estate taxes are now based on speculative resale values but those property taxes will be paid from production revenue, This unseen expense drives rental costs and resale expectations into discontent levels. Land values will drop with rising interest rates and already are in fringe areas.
SE Colorado CRP land -1,970 acres for sale -- good quality land, 2 years left on $40/acre contracts $575 per acre....needs a buyer.
We will prepare for the stresses of land ownership on rented land as property taxes and unrealistic value expectations take effect.
Now environmental hokies have moved to the courts since they lost control of congress, if monsanto case is upheld on appeal, look for Organic crop markets(the real ones) to get flooded out of relevance. And eventually the courts will become irrelevant as insurance companies pull back from ag. liability and get dropped as unaffordable.
Agriculture may accept the fact that it does not drive the US economy.
