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Re: What`s the plan for next year?

SW, good points. I would suggest the Monsanto case will likely go all the way up, as sound science was rejected as valid evidence. Organics have their own set of troubles which may change along the way.
Honored Advisor

Re: What`s the plan for next year?

I think so too.  It is really the only way to curb "rambo" judges and jury manipulation. The legal decisions in California should be on the vegas odds board.  They are as unpredictable as the average baseball game.  More unpredictable than my 2018 favorite team the A's.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: What`s the plan for next year?

hey sw I was with ya on the A's until they picked up ol' crooked hat from the Twins.

 

When asked about loading the bases in the 9th inning of a Twins road game before

   retiring the side he said "I just wanted to get the crowd in the game".

He's a funny guy!!Smiley Surprised

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: What`s the plan for next year?

Are   the  plants  appearing  in Soy Bean  fields  18 inches  above  canopy  -  trademarked  or  not    ?   

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Honored Advisor

Re: What`s the plan for next year?

not something we are proud of..

 

cat --- all he has got to do is eat up some innings this month an next, to keep the young bucks fresh for the playoffs. Their in trouble if Treinen gets tired.

 

That bullpen is amazing for the investment...... And with that quality of relievers Cahill, Anderson, and company are looking better and better for old young "has beens".  With all their variety of benders and speed changes for 85-90 pitches, those 5 hard throwing closers are even more effective.  Their fun to watch.

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Honored Advisor

Re: What`s the plan for next year?

It seems to me that the EPA demands to approve chemicals before they hit the market and that sometimes takes 7 years.  If a chemical jumps through all those governmental hoops, then it`s the EPA that should be on the hook.   If the EPA put a newly discovered harmful chemical, they should pull it from the market.   But if you really pull out the bifocals and read the label, I doubt any of us thoroughly follow their C.Y.A. safety requirements of goggles hazmat suits, ect….ahem, a friend of mine still blows through nozzles to clean them.   That California groundskeeper that won the $1/4 Billion jackpot lawsuit, I doubt he followed all the fine print on the label.

 

And we wonder why industry leaves the US and sets up shop overseas, just one of the top 4 reasons.

Veteran Advisor

Re: What`s the plan for next year?

Cultivators are no-go in rolling farm country like much of Iowa.  The soil erosion wheenies would be on us in a second.

 

Diversified farming might be an answer, but it isn't.  The infrastructure is no longer there.  

 

Saying markets are irrational is not accurate, or at least not helpful.  Open markets obviously get to where there is a willing seller and a willing buyer.  Overshooting a price doesn't mean there is not a willing seller and a willing buyer.  Just because it's a price some don't like doesn't mean it's not rational - it was to the two parties.

 

How does one market a crop if one waits till it's in the bin?  Everyone knows what it is worth and it is probably worth less than it cost to produce it.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: What`s the plan for next year?

Jim  -  So  the  verdict  being  ''  painted  in  the  corner ''   somewhat  ? 

 

BA  -  where  are  the  experts  at  on  this  one -  patented  - trade  mark,  on  seeds  on  one  hand  ,  although  immune  from  other  evolved  seed -  kinda  like  shatter cane III  syndrome - maybe  ?     

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Honored Advisor

Re: What`s the plan for next year?

Cultivators are no-go in rolling farm country like much of Iowa.  The soil erosion wheenies would be on us in a second.  

Jim,  If Iowa wasn't planting evey hillside that is fromer cow habitat they could get steel to work occasionally.  Besides it makes no difference when the weeds won't die from all those "new" chemicals like "dicamba" and that magic bullet that is not really in the new formulation.  But you need to get the word out.  This summer I saw sweeps and discs running from sw ks to Des Moines trying to clean up the messes.

 

Diversified farming might be an answer, but it isn't.  The infrastructure is no longer there.  Oh yes it is, but the tables have turned with congressional help.  The small family farm used to be proudly diversified.  Now the small farms  are locked into grain production with no hours left to milk  the cows, or money to finance a dairy that will meet epa regs.  The infrastructure  is there, just not for the small  producer.  Now Large land owners and large grain producers are the ones most likely to be investors in large dairies, ethanol facilities,  private elevators, or have large public businesses like Theaters, chain of resteraunts, production contracts with large grain users that bypass public trading to attain a price for dependable supply, etc etc.

 

Saying markets are irrational is not accurate, or at least not helpful.  Open markets obviously get to where there is a willing seller and a willing buyer.  Overshooting a price doesn't mean there is not a willing seller and a willing buyer.  Just because it's a price some don't like doesn't mean it's not rational - it was to the two parties. The point is "futures contracts" are not markets.  Futures contracts that end with grain possession transfer are markets-- allowing the futures trades to become 90+% speculative gambling with no real skin in the game so that we buy and sell trillions of bushels of corn in a country that only produces, maybe 14 billions bushel has driven futures into a spasmatic frenzy.   Futures markets probably facilitate the sale of less than 20% of what is raised.

At one time it was necessary to ease contract backing by grain or money to allow some increased level of volatility. A imes have changed  this point with the new technology and it's international inclusiveness, and teachers IRA's through managed funds day trading for profit, volatility is king.  An the junkies who need it get a fresh dose every month.  

I'll try to be more "helpful"---- In the last two years $4 KC wheat basis volatility was nearly $2 within a term of less than 18 months.  I study basis charts..  basis represents the affect of freight and local tight supply..... a 50% basis move with much smaller futures move has not happened before, with no apparent world shortage or huge shift of ownership world wide. 

My estimation is that 60 to 70% of the actual corn sold(7 to 8 billion bu) is sold direct without the assistance of the futures market by negotiation of basis and mutual benefit.....or, goes direct to a nearly vertically integrated grain user.

 

 

 

 

How does one market a crop if one waits till it's in the bin?  Direct to the highest bidder, when the bidder needs it most.

 

Everyone knows what it is worth and it is probably worth less than it cost to produce it.  All it needs to be worth is 50 to 75 cents more than elevator grain, save storage costs, and facilitate quicker harvest and tax management .  

Grain with storage gains marketing months that are lost to storage fees, and gains end user choices lost the moment it goes into public storage.

 

This morning I was discussing a subject we avoid here on the "small farm" Iowa web site, with a CPA friend of mine from Hays, Ks.    The vertical intigration change of agriculture and it's acceleration  through technology.   I mentioned the obvious poulty, hog, and cattle examples and he mentioned the enomous dairy expansion all over this area. Much of it tied directly to retail giant end users, financially or contractually.

Now the last few commodities to become vetically integrated are making the move, at least the share of it that can afford to.  The big are diversifying an forming associations for "marketing"  an the small can't afford to.  In many cases futures ae irrelevant.

Honored Advisor

Re: What`s the plan for next year?

How did the Green Weenies get so smart about cultivators "causing erosion"?   There isn`t brains among all of the Green weenies to pour piss out of a boot on their own.   It`s those that worship at the alter of no-till that did it, "ain`t we speeeecial, we don`t work the soil to plant",  yeah, they are dependent on chemistry bailing them out and that chemistry is starting to fail (Palmer pigweed, marestail, ect).   Tillage has a place, in the rolling hills of Johnson county, yes, you probably have to rotate with hay and pasture, dad, grandpa and great granddad worked that same ground and put 8 kids through college on it.   But, it`s easier loading corn than it is loading cattle and getting up at 5 to milk every morning, I get that.   But, that is one of the costs of industrialized agriculture, when corn was $7 and $13 beans and Flexstar still worked, we didn`t notice it so much.  But when cash corn dips to a "2" occasionally, we become aware of many shortcomings that price masked a few years ago.