cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Honored Advisor

When is it gonna catch up to input sellers?

Seems to me inputers have rode the "Bull" about 3 years longer than us farmers.  Sending out invitations in September to "save 10% on seed if you pay by October 15th"  meanwhile our what we sell is down 50%-60%.  They`ve maintained their price integrity remarkably well selling to the deadmen walking. 

 

Seems to me if value of what a $250 bag of seed produces drops in half, then they should drop THEIR price in half as well instead of offering the same "10% discount"  that they did when corn was $7.  Perhaps their comeuppance is right around the corner, seed dealer`s lots aren`t packed, plenty of parking and fresh virgin snow up to the door of the dealer`s shed.

 

It seems coops have been busy spreading high priced fertilizer.  In this low yield area, the "ding ding" of tender trucks going over the scale out numbers the "ding ding" of farmers hauling grain in.

 

The tilers are busy, pattern tiling like cash corn is still $7, I don`t know if it`s a case where a landlord tiles in exchange for not dropping the rent or what.  But pattern tile pays...however when you`re at below cost of production prices? 

 

Driving through Hayfield Minnesota, a guy that was with me saw the corn pile in a ring "oh my they got a lot of corn here", not really there`s supposed to be 3 piles like that in a average year, I doubt they`ll bother even covering it.  Ventura 5 Star as well, pile it on the ground and shortly haul it away, not like a lot of years scrambling to get it moved in March.

 

 

 

 

 

 

14 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: When is it gonna catch up to input sellers?

I don't recall that the seed prices dropped all that much during the LDP days, yet wouldn't doubt that they've at least doubled since that time.

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: When is it gonna catch up to input sellers?

I don`t think seed companies can drop prices, too much investment and new pickups for company reps.  They`re all in the same boat, either we buy at their gimmick prices or they`ll go broke and Monsanto will gobble them up and keep prices high.  Actually a new seed company, without the burden of all the fancy bricks and mortar could come in and do well selling $150 seed, I would think. 

 

On the "other site" someone brought up the old "Fielders Choice" that was a good company, good seed at reasonable price, but got bought out.  I recall Mike the one that started the company sent out a vcr tape explaining how they get university genetics like the big boys and in their breeding production, he explained how they do it more efficiently and pass the savings to the farmer.  But the distribution was unique in that a farmer with a big shed would receive all the seed ordered in the area and everyone had 2 or 3 days to pick up their seed.  I thought it worked rather well and not all the middlemen taking their cut.

 

What I didn`t like is if I ordered 105 day seed and bad weather caused me to need 95 day seed, it was more complicated to getting the earlier seed.  But don`t order 105 day, order 100 day and don`t buy all your seed from them was the answer.   Smiley Happy

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: When is it gonna catch up to input sellers?

Just   don't   blink,   the  squeeZe   might  be  closer   than  you  think  -    -    -  

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: When is it gonna catch up to input sellers?

Hate to say it but the last bastion of common sense and financial restraint might come from the bankers who have to answer to bank examiners...otherwise they`d just continue being nice guys too. "I`ll give you money one more year, but you have to buy your seed from the Albert Lea Seedhouse!".  

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: When is it gonna catch up to input sellers?

HINT   -  Restrain  yourself  from  getting  into  that  leveraged  position  -   -   -

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: When is it gonna catch up to input sellers?

Well, it sneaks up on smart and competent farmers.  Take a farmer pre 2013 who was told "we`re in a new price plateau +$100 oil...peak oil peak corn...land they ain`t makin` anymore of it".   I`m not letting the farmer off the hook, history repeats, memories are short and time heals wounds from the 80`s.

 

But yeah, 2011 landlord says "pay $400 or I`ll rent my 1,000 acres to any one of a dozen farmers licking their chops at my front door"...well, pay the $400 rent or the 9870 doesn`t have much to do next fall.   $400 rent...better plant Channel smart stax, better not skimp on N,P & K .  Well you make a little or thread water...until 2013, 1 foot of snow May 2nd and solid rain May 15 to July 1 and falling prices.  So the "burning of equity" innocently begins...Hey Mr Banker I`m gonna have to borrow operating money just to get past this one time bad year of 2013. 

 

Then 2014 good yields worse price...more borrowed operating money to get over this rough patch heh heh heh.  2015 tough year prices fall money, more operating money, what`s the odds of 2016 being bad?  Good yields prices fall more, need more operating money, last time I promise, 2017`ll be better.  2017 it gets worse funny thing Mr Banker, you`re gonna laugh, I need more money heh heh heh.  2018 crappy yields and prices go sub 2005 near LDP levels.

 

Well Mr Banker 2019, here we are....if you close me out, I wouldn`t blame you a bit.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: When is it gonna catch up to input sellers?

With  a  rendition  of  the  tune     '''''  feeding  the   _  _   _  _  D ''''   as   the  lights  dim   -    -    -   

0 Kudos
Advisor

Re: When is it gonna catch up to input sellers?

End users are working with their “bankers”.

You often bring up some magic year or era when “this or that was” pivotal.

Think 1998-1990 or so, when all sorts of “new arrangements” were starting to take form.
0 Kudos
smus88gmailco
Frequent Reader

Re: When is it gonna catch up to input sellers?

I've been wondering how soon it's going to hit implement dealers.

Millions of dollars in used equipment on one lot, too big for the small guy, too old for the big guy, and no medium guy to pick up the slack anymore.
0 Kudos