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Veteran Advisor

You ain't going to like this

I didn't go to church today.  Just didn't feel like it.  Starting to get a cold, maybe even the flu.  I don't feel horrible, but don't feel good

either.  So I had a few hours to myself....nice and quiet in the house.......so had some time to think, reflect, and if an idea hit me,

I just did some looking about on the internet.  For all it's faults, the internet is amazing.  The things we can find and sources we

can consult is something.  I find myself at times telling the computer to "hurry up", not to think, a page from 1,000 miles away or

oversea's takes a few seconds to load......think of the distance that your "signal" is traveling.

 

I thought about many things......the way things are, plans for the future, reflection to the past, and the mistakes I've made, which there

have been plenty.  I was always told that a man owns his mistakes, which I try, but can be painful (but seems that someone that

likes to tweet a lot, wasn't told that).....and that a man learns from his mistakes (again, the same person seems not to have been

told that).

 

Looking at the low income levels and the way things are, from high input cost, to weeds we can't kill, to on and on and on......I've come

to the realization........it is indeed our fault.

 

we can point fingers in all directions  (remember when you point at something, you are pointing 1 finger away from you, but 3 back to

you.....i'm told that there is nothing we can do, we have to change, etc....etc....etc........ad nausium.

 

in many respects, it is our fault by letting it happen.......rather than getting involved, or saying no, or whatever, we just let it go thru our

fingers......granted, there were many that was guiding us, to get things in their favor.....we did it, we didn't know any better...we

thought they were our friend, or helping us.........but remember, we let them get away with it......we should have been on watch

and said NO.

 

Today, we have it in our heads (these ideas are being pushed on us, and our children), that we must get bigger, we must use the best

and latest technology, etc....etc......with the idea, that it will produce more, and with lower cost of production, we will make more.......

 

but, we go along with it....it is our fault.

 

today, we listened to everyone, and threw what we know out the window, and used herbicides in wrong ways or too much or

when not needed, because it was easy, it was cheap, and "that's what we were told".........

 

and where did it get us..........here we are, little if anything will work.....the only choice, we are told (again we are not using our

heads) we have to use even more somone else control ideas, by using gmo's in seed to allow the use of a herbicide.......

 

yet......the key is right there in front of us (or maybe out in the cedar trees)......we've known, even since children, when taken

out to grandma's garden, the most effective herbicide was tillage.....today, that's bad........why is it bad.....this that and the

other, but the reason that its bad, is because someone can not profit from it......I'm sorry, you think your chemical people

are your friend, again, shame on you.

we now have to have gmo's......most of our grain supply is contaminated with them.....from corn to soybeans, even wheat for

a while  ((and there was never a RR wheat released)).....same with cotton......

 

you know, our real buyers are consumers.....not the elevators.......we have all learned in school, that the customer is right, when it comes

to how they spend their money.........

 

for a number of years now, we have been aginst our customers, defending the chemical and seed company, saying we MUST have

these products, we must have GMO's etc....etc........

 

consider this

 

https://www.consumerreports.org/cro/magaine/2015/02/gmo-foods-what-you-need-to-know/index.htm

 

https://www.rt.com/usa/gmo-labeled-majority-americans-601/

 

these articles tell of how many americans think gmo's should be labeled.......and why else would they want them labeled, they

may not want to purchase.......

 

folks, think about that 80% don't want it, but we keep pushing it down their throats, tell them, they don't understand, it's ok, it's

this it's that......even the farm bureau (which is supposed to look out for us), and commodity groups pushing for it............

 

consider, you go into a store, there is an item there, you don't like it, you don't want it, but the saleman keeps telling you that you

are wrong, you need it, you must buy it, etc........how does that make you feel ???

 

same here....

 

and we have been dump and foolish enough to go along, and do the seed and chemical company's dirty work.......when it should be

them...........

 

there is a little thing called product liability....i'll bet if you look at your farm policy, you'll find you have it !!!

 

we have been so dumb, we've let these companys push us around like puppets.......and yes, it's our fault.

 

you know, the farm bureau and others, which have supposed to been watching our backs, haven't....when we saw they

 

were going astray, did we so no, and run for office to make things better.....nope.......so it's is our fault

 

ever wonder......you hear their commericals on all the ag stations, saying how the American farmers is wonderful..........we

all know that...........

 

but you ever see them have an ad on prime time on cbs, abc, nbc, how about fox, cnn, or others ????????

 

how about super bowel ????????

 

if we really want to make our case we have to go to the mass people, not the 2% listening to the farm radio or rfdtv.....again, we

let it happen.....we stood by and let it happen.

 

a neighbor and I were talking a while back....I commented on his corn  (we are not a big corn area), he said it did 120 bu an

acre.......and $5 a bu......

what was it, it was non-gmo corn that he got a contract on......yes he has to haul it 100 miles, but not much worse than what

some of us have to do to capture a premium......

his seed cost was lower, used standard chemicals and fertilizer.....he did ok........matter of fact he did something you

don't see anymore........he cultivated..........yes go call grandpa or great grandpa and ask what that is.

 

he didn't have problems with weeds.

 

so, he had lower costs, and higher income...............

 

and wasn't doing what everyone told him..........he was true to himself, not the chemical or seed salesman.

 

oh yea, he was laughed at.....but he and the banker were sure having a good time when he brought the check in the bank.

 

to get higher prices, we either have to increase use, or lower supply (at least that is the way the market used to work.....again, we

let the market get away from us, from open outcry, to now allowing "closed door trading" on deferred contracts)....yes, it is our

fault, we could have hollered, yelled, protested, wrote letters, etc......to stop it........we didn't now did the farm groups.

 

imagine, if we used the lower technology, there MIGHT be lower production.......

 

we also must use more......and the only option is fuels......we need to raise the % ethanol that is used, and we need to push biodiesel.

 

but we as producers will not even use the products, such as biodiesel...granted not the best choice for winter, they will work and

why not use durning the summer.....why, it's not available.........remember, many of us get our fuel from our cooperative...and

our cooperative will not offer a product we produce.......again, it's our fault, we just take it, they (our employee's) must be forced to

do it.

also, does YOUR coop have a E30 pump or higher ??...again if not, it's your fault.......say you want it, they say no, you go to the board,

they say no, you go to the paper and paint them yellow.........and if needed, run for board.......yes, you have to do some work......

but, we need some hero's anymore.

 

we are told, we have to do things the way we are..........WE HAVE TO.....WHY ????

 

if not, the chem and fert guy will laugh at you and point to you and tell everyone.....just remember, he's doing that for his own pocket.

 

if we let him get away with it, it's our own fault.....

 

just for fun....here are a couple of website.......no i'm not saying we need to go back to horse, but to say, yes, there are different ways

 

www.pioneerhorseequipment.com/

 

https://farming with horses.com/

 

but maybe some of their ideas are not so bad.......using cultivation, and not gmo's.....which the American people don't want.

and lower input costs........

 

like my grandpa said, don't blame other people for your problems..........yes, it's our mess, we made it, so what are

we doing to do about it ?

 

 

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11 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: You ain't going to like this

INTERESTING  - and  thoughtful towards our consumer , our end game ---

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Honored Advisor

Re: You ain't going to like this

I hate to say it but experts say were in for another 3yrs of this...yes, there will be blood.  The only thing "positive" is we`re all so bearish and when you`re flat on your back the only place to go is up.  We could have a drought "some place else" that some what bails us out, but I don`t see it making up for the burned equity that some did to survive.   That 4, 5 yrs of good times that we had does have a high cost for probably twice as long in a down market.

 

Baring a black swan event that bails us out, you gotta expect to live on your seedcorn at least the next 3yrs or your neck will be on the chopping block.  There will be farm sales and if we`re lucky it`ll only be a mini 1980`s.  I talked to a farmer/banker from another area and he said a guy came in asking for operating money and "no money in farming" and then later in the meeting was inquiring about money to buy more land, so not everyone has learned their lesson yet.   Some think as long as the banker gives them money, they`re doing well.

 

But the corporations will long have taken over before farmers ever agree to work together and maybe that`s how some of us want it.  It seems farming like everything has gotten big "to survive" and to get big, you have to covet thy neighbor`s land.  So, there you go.

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Honored Advisor

Re: You ain't going to like this

BA  maybe you need to see it in a different light.....

 

Often it is not that way......... Good timing and some breaks along with work make a guy look like he is good at what he does, when others around struggle through poor management skills or inherited problems(or just some bad luck)( Or bad marketing advice).  When the neighbors quit or retire they get greedy and all run to the same guy because he looks ........... well lets face it, they don't care whether he is smart or lucky they just want top dollar their because former farmers and just want live the good life from their 500 acres.

There are always new things to learn........... like when to hand it back to them.  Everybody's got their problems.  Three more years and that 500 acres will sell cheaper.

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: You ain't going to like this

After the,  St. Louis  - Leverkusen  - ah,hum   merger,  lets see how many sympathetic ears &  alligator tears will come down the pipe ?  We are here to make things better, easier, and last although not least ''convenient'',  was the message the past decade ( forget costs)---

 

Reality check time in several ways leaves us pondering about the St. Louis exit to Germany might have any thoughts about the example of Gordon Sinclair - America's  or should I say  Amerika   ? ?

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: You ain't going to like this

Greed , pure and simple elcheapo!
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Senior Contributor

Re: You ain't going to like this

My approach to 2018 and beyond is like the 1980's.....cut expenses and inputs to the point where low levels of crop insurance will provide enough of a backstop to survive and pay the bills and use rallies in the grain market to try to make money.

 

$120/bag conventional seed corn, $15/acre chemical program, nitrogen for 200 bushel yields with only rotated ground/no corn on corn, potash and phosphorus only as needed, etc. No new iron, repairs done in house, etc. Negotiate rents to the point where the property cash flows or let it go.

 

If markets stay low, I am still in the game, if markets rally, I make money and am happy. Obviously I will not be the guy bragging about 270 bpa corn yields, but I wouldn't be anyways.

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Advisor

Re: You ain't going to like this

El, sometimes you think too much.  😊. 

 

Just for discussion....it seems you are still blaming others....”letting things happen, or taking their advice.”  

 

In education, we blame teachers, the schools, the government for the poor educational system.  Never do we blame ourselves for not getting involved in the children’s education.  Research confirms when parents read to their children from birth on up, this improves the child’s intellect greatly.  Children who are already reading before kindergarten will move ahead of their peers.  They are critical thinkers.

 

So, why not model critical thinking ourselves?  Do we continue to blame ourselves only for “allowing” others to influence our thinking, or do we take an active role in deciding which sources of information are valid and worthwhile?  One who subscribes to the “get big or get out” theory without evaluating all relevant factors of efficiency and economy, etc, will likely fail.  One who believes that smaller is better, or organic, or non-gmo is better without studying the data and research, will likely fail as well.  

 

If if you disagree with the big Ag mentality, fine, but know all there is to know, and show it by being successful in your practice.  

 

This is not a put-down, but a frank encouragement, not only to you, but all of us, myself included.  I have a family member deeply involved in the organic industry and though I am a traditional man myself, my goal is to help him to be the best farmer he can be.  He is experimenting with farm practices to combine no-till with organic production.  Talk about a steep learning curve, but he is progressing, and I am his biggest fan.  Plus, I am implementing some practices “we” were interested in and trying them on my farm this spring.

 

 

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: You ain't going to like this

cheapo = here is your alternate crop:

Kansas Lavender.jpg

https://www.thespruce.com/growing-lavender-1402779

You may need to recruit some neighbors and set up your own distillery.

It likes warm dry climates with plenty of sun.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: You ain't going to like this

Hey Red, everyone`s situation is different, for some planting $300/bag Channel, hog manure, chicken litter, fungicide, ect ect does make sense swinging for the bleachers because the right ground and 300 bpa makes up for a lot of <$3 corn.  The way I see it is you have to look at your land cost, and realistic yield expectations and spend according to that.   Having said that, the guy in North Dakota getting +200/bpa on ground that his dad raised cattle on and never thought was suitable for row crops blows that out of the water   Smiley Happy 

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