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Senior Contributor
Posts: 2,389
Registered: ‎11-20-2016
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Re: Your 2019 Outlook?

December 2019 corn futures hovering around $4 per bushel, November Soybeans around $9.70.....everyone should be watching these numbers and getting their production expenses in line with market realities. 

 

The plan I posted previously still works, with the three legged stool of marketing and production....hedge to arrive at these numbers, use bins to get the carry from December 19 to July 20 to try and cover most of the basis, and last, get a decent basis to complete the sale.

 

Just got done with the crop adjuster on 2018 production, and even with a spartan crop insurance strategy, (I paid under $8 per acre last year) I still was able to revenue protect my soybean crops at the maximum, and to yield protect my corn harvests at the max.(no revenue protection). Granted I left 28 cents per bushel on the table by not electing price protection on corn but I cut my crop insurance premiums by half, a bird in the hand vs. the proverbial bird in the bush. Didn't expect the double whammy of lower prices and lower yields but that is the way the cookie crumbles sometimes.

 

All in all, 2018 actually will go off the books as a pretty good year financially, and that is even before accounting for the almost certain ARC payment coming in the fall based on our low county yields.

 

So, for 2019 I am optimistic....should be a nice bounce back in yields and people and industry all over the world are using our crops or someone elses…..the sky is not falling in my world.