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Veteran Advisor

Your 2019 Outlook?

https://www.agriculture.com/farm-management/finances-accounting/gray-skies-over-farm-country?did=337...

 

This SF piece says the financial people are a little down on ag profitability in 2019.  

 

I am not planning any expansion.  Are you?

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18 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Your 2019 Outlook?

Yes

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Honored Advisor

Re: Your 2019 Outlook?

Profits high hone your craft
Polish your skills

Np profits expected — try something new
Find new roads.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Your 2019 Outlook?

If you don`t expect much, you won`t be disappointed Smiley Happy

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Your 2019 Outlook?

Be  Patriotic  -  and  better  daZe  are  coming  -   according to top official at  U. S. D. A.   after   S O T U  message  -  -  -

 

When -  I  make out my spring operating plan ,  I'll  be  sure  to  include  that  message  of   wholehearted  advice  -   -   - 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Your 2019 Outlook?

December 2019 corn futures hovering around $4 per bushel, November Soybeans around $9.70.....everyone should be watching these numbers and getting their production expenses in line with market realities. 

 

The plan I posted previously still works, with the three legged stool of marketing and production....hedge to arrive at these numbers, use bins to get the carry from December 19 to July 20 to try and cover most of the basis, and last, get a decent basis to complete the sale.

 

Just got done with the crop adjuster on 2018 production, and even with a spartan crop insurance strategy, (I paid under $8 per acre last year) I still was able to revenue protect my soybean crops at the maximum, and to yield protect my corn harvests at the max.(no revenue protection). Granted I left 28 cents per bushel on the table by not electing price protection on corn but I cut my crop insurance premiums by half, a bird in the hand vs. the proverbial bird in the bush. Didn't expect the double whammy of lower prices and lower yields but that is the way the cookie crumbles sometimes.

 

All in all, 2018 actually will go off the books as a pretty good year financially, and that is even before accounting for the almost certain ARC payment coming in the fall based on our low county yields.

 

So, for 2019 I am optimistic....should be a nice bounce back in yields and people and industry all over the world are using our crops or someone elses…..the sky is not falling in my world.

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Highlighted
Senior Contributor

Little V8....Really?

most of us have given you the Ag Forum to spout your highly informative political musings, and you still need to try to troll someplace else?

 

Maybe you should get that TDS treated, pal.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Little V8....Really?

I'll  have  my  accountant  take  care of  my  T  D  S ,  and  Sec. Ag  do  his  farm  information  gig  -  -  -   

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Honored Advisor

Re: Your 2019 Outlook?

Hey Red, I finished my income taxes and my operation was was in the black on average $100/acre thanks to livestock...I`m in no way bragging because without 2 1/2 sources of outside income, we wouldn`t have anything to live off.  2018 was my worst year based on yield and relative market price, kind of getting way back to the 1991 & 1993 years of halloween ice storms and such to have a worse year overall.  

 

My problem aside from `18 poor local yields and "bottom 1/3 marketing"  I bought too much machinery in the unrealistic good times and now paying it off with $3 corn and 50 bushel below trend yields, it`s taking longer than was planned when corn was $5+ but that`s my bad. Stuff happens and someone with my gray hair should`ve better anticipated.  All that and I had 2 kids in college at the same time....ouch baby!   Now it`s just one, I think we can handle that   Smiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: Your 2019 Outlook?

rsbs        What are you expecting for basis....??

 

 -$1.60 on beans and  -60 on corn.....Dec 19  ??

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