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Veteran Advisor

Re: Your 2019 Outlook?

BA, a poor year financially on the farm probably benefits the college kids when it comes time to pay the tuition.  At least thats how it worked here.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Your 2019 Outlook?

Hi SW,  no, hopefully nothing like those numbers.

 

I am fortunate to have the Mankato and Fairmont MN soybean processing plants close, that have been running a 60 cent bean basis. I rolled my fall contracts to the July month this year and now  have a futures fixed $11 plus contract to work with on half of 2018's production, and should be able to net  close to $10 overall, even if I take the 60 cent basis and clean out the bins at some point. Add in the market disruption payments, and I am over $11 per bushel on produced bushels. At some point, perhaps soon, I will hedge about half of expected 2019 production in a similar fashion, and hope that the basis improves by the summer of 2020.

 

Corn is a similar story....I have one coop that runs out unit trains regularly that has a great basis, and three ethanol plants within pretty easy driving distance for competitive markets. I closed out my 2018 corn hedges with a 40 under July basis, and saw that it a couple of cents better lately even. I will hedge most of the corn I plan to sell in 2020 on the futures at some point pretty soon and gamble on a few bushels, too. 2019 sales are already on the books with cash contracts averaging just over $4 per bushel.

 

My goal for the last few years has been to consistently get $10 or better net soybeans, and $4 or better corn. That seems to make everything work pretty good the way I have my business structured. I am not trying to hit homeruns, just to do what it takes to stay profitable.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Your 2019 Outlook?

thanks for that Red,,,,, good to hear from you again    its a good plan.....

 

We have the opposite as you know ... with good corn basis and weak beans.......

 

But we would like to swing the acres to favor beans in 19 to pad the cash flow a bit.... water is getting more expensive

 

anyway the bean marketing will take a little more thought and use of storage...and delivery... our bean spot is 200 miles 

 

Not sure why the feedlot area hasn't put $$ into a bean processing facility.... but the backhauls out of Wichita are easy to find and pretty cheap for that far.

 

anyway I was just wandering through the ruins and say your ideas bouncing around...

 

Good to read you ....

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Honored Advisor

Re: Your 2019 Outlook?

saw     not say       even when the room is near empty the smell of censorship lingers.  Smiley Happy

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Your 2019 Outlook?

Couple of the Mankato area e-plants are paying $0.15 over to get corn delivered this weekend.

Want to get stocked up before the next snownami rolls in.

Another foot, give or take, due by Wednesday.

About 12 below this morning but up to 8 degrees now.

Gotta luv it when it has to warm up to snow.

Keep the fuel blended.Smiley Happy

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Advisor

Re: Your 2019 Outlook?

19 will be a good un.

expect a big up in cattle......say $50 cwt up for both cull cows And traditional fat cattle.

Say $300 cwt 5 wt steers by year end.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Your 2019 Outlook?

Hope that stuff isn’t adictive. And I hope your right.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Your 2019 Outlook?

Will  contract  you  some  $2.75  - 5  weights ,  so  you  have  a  easy,  safe  -  cushion  -  ? 

 

How  many   1000's  you  want  - ?   

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Your 2019 Outlook?

Cattle-USA  -  Live today -   Yankton  South Dakota -  Stockmans  -  Fats  $1.24   -  $1.26   - a  couple packages at  $1.27  -  2-12-19 

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