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Senior Contributor
Posts: 2,544
Registered: ‎11-20-2016
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Re: Your 2019 Outlook?

Hi SW,  no, hopefully nothing like those numbers.

 

I am fortunate to have the Mankato and Fairmont MN soybean processing plants close, that have been running a 60 cent bean basis. I rolled my fall contracts to the July month this year and now  have a futures fixed $11 plus contract to work with on half of 2018's production, and should be able to net  close to $10 overall, even if I take the 60 cent basis and clean out the bins at some point. Add in the market disruption payments, and I am over $11 per bushel on produced bushels. At some point, perhaps soon, I will hedge about half of expected 2019 production in a similar fashion, and hope that the basis improves by the summer of 2020.

 

Corn is a similar story....I have one coop that runs out unit trains regularly that has a great basis, and three ethanol plants within pretty easy driving distance for competitive markets. I closed out my 2018 corn hedges with a 40 under July basis, and saw that it a couple of cents better lately even. I will hedge most of the corn I plan to sell in 2020 on the futures at some point pretty soon and gamble on a few bushels, too. 2019 sales are already on the books with cash contracts averaging just over $4 per bushel.

 

My goal for the last few years has been to consistently get $10 or better net soybeans, and $4 or better corn. That seems to make everything work pretty good the way I have my business structured. I am not trying to hit homeruns, just to do what it takes to stay profitable.