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Senior Contributor

divergent view of trade news

Admin says the hard 3/1 deadline on China trade/tariffs not so hard after all.


Stock market generally OK with it all up to this point because as long as the criminal thimbleriggers have something they can claim is going to be good news they can squeeze shorts and sell overpriced XXXX to widows and orphans.


A little different for the grain markets where a few months of can kicking (and maybe nothing at the end) means the US is left holding a chunk of the the world's grain and soy surplus.


There are some real issues with China- foremost matters of intellectual property. With an election coming up I'd be inclined to think that the Admin would roll over, make a phony agreement like New NAFTA and then claim victory at a few campaign rallies.


I'm thinking not so fast here. There is a real, not made up and phony, conflict arising between politics and the intelligence/security state.


Don't know what happens but whatever advantage this admin had over those centers of power is evaporating.


BTW, in a rational world, we would have not made up phony problems with our NAFTA and NATO partners and would have led a coalition to force China to change its behavior.


And been quite willing to provide offsets to players who were harmed, such as farmers. We might be anyway, politically speaking, but it is all pretty much a farce and not likely to get better.




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Senior Contributor

Re: divergent view of trade news

As info comes out in drips and occasional torrents there's an inescapable conclusion as to why Trump chose to pick fights with Canada and the EU.


It is because he trusts his friend Putin more than our So Called Experts.

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Honored Advisor

Re: divergent view of trade news

There are breakthroughs as we speak, beans & pork stand to be big gainers.  Half of China`s hogs are raised in backyards of <500hd, for ASF containment that can`t be ideal.  China is coming to grips with they can`t continue "beating up they own fist with Trump`s face" and a deal is in their best interest.  Agricultural products and intellectual material is the only main areas where trade can be balanced.  


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States and China have started to outline commitments in principle on the stickiest issues in their trade dispute, marking the most significant progress yet toward ending a seven-month trade war, according to sources familiar with the negotiations.

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