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long term commodity chart

http://www.businessinsider.com/commodity-kondratiev-cycles-2012-4

 

As to the purpose and conclusions of this particular piece- I assume just somebody else trying to sell a newsletter or opinion and to that, caveat emptor.

 

More than anything, just reminded that at each of those peaks and intermediate peaks folks were for the most part pretty bullish. And then something changed.

 

In regards to shorter term cycles my experience has been that sometimes they show up and can run for quite a while but they never last forever. However, for whatever it is worth certain cycle theories say that the longer the cycle the more reliable.

 

Still my general operating theory that the orthodox midpoint of the 60 year commodity cycle was hit a bit early in 2008, since then we're just in an echo boom as we throw everything but the kitchen sink against the forces of deflation.

 

It is theoretically possible to win the war against deflation but it is a tough row to hoe without rising wages and with a huge debt overhang.

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