Posts: 13,047
Registered: ‎02-06-2014

Hog prices

I don't know what people are getting in the way of premiums but futures only, Dec is approaching '98 kind of levels if you take current cost of production into account. At least corn was $2 back then. Another $10 or so to go.


I guess the market will try to take back the recent historic windfall from the disease problem (assuming you weren't greatly affected).


Don't know, I'm not very well in touch with the business any more.


I guess the ever more consolidated industry has managed some grudging liquidation in the past, I guess it will again, eventually.


A bit dated but he observes that the 2007-14 supply gap for all meats is about closed now.


BTW, I'm not sure about the "modern industry" but historically when hogs made a major bottom it was a V affair, overshooting anything that looked reasonable then eventually springing back sharply. Although I knew a guy who suffered a near death experience looking for that in '98. He eventually came out OK but was darn near wiped out before it turned.


I think he probably promised God that if he'd get him out of his mess he'd never do it again. Don't know if he kept his promise or not.