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Veteran Contributor

Numbers

Life is getting interesting in the hogs.  Expansion higher than reported?  I am seeing numbers "catching up" after our PED hole and prepared for higher yoy slaughter by years end.  Analysts pin their hopes on continued PED.  Is that healthy?

 

Now monster soybeanmeal demand.  Explained by "double booking" logistics?  OK.

 

Profits are still good but I'm losing my positive outlook.  Cheer me up.

 

 

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4 Replies
Advisor

Re: Numbers

As I've said, if numbers don't rise substantially in response to record profits then it might build a case that free market conditions no longer exist in that market and anti-trust action should be considered.

 

I think numbers will rise but not as fast as some might think i.e., it is only part way to being an oligopoly.

 

But remember, when folks would watch Milton Friedman on PBS' Free to Choose back in the day, the intellectual foundation of Chicago School free market theory was based on Schultz' analysis of historical hog data.

 

What happens if we have a religion but find out that our god is dead?

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Numbers

I still believe that the hog market is "free" but I wonder if the door is closing.  There are still a (good?) percentage of independent pork producers but packers can make marketing difficult.  A lot easier if you align yourself with a packer or big producer.  Is that what happened to the chickens?  Set up a contract but lose your independence?  Turn into a factory job.

 

Wouldn't the pork oligopoly (packers and bigtime feeders?) want large supply?   Make boo-koo bucks competing with tight beef.

 

I see pork production (including higher live weights) increasing 3-4% by next summer.Smiley Happy 

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Numbers

Only thing you have to really worry about is surviving the cash flow of no pigs from PED which price will make up for. Or you really have to worry about a vaccine controlling PED and then we have a repeat of 98 cause we are working on more sows than slaughter capacity with sow herd potential? PED will keep this industry profitable and it will ruin it if they cure it. Just my opinion.
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Senior Contributor

Re: Numbers

The independent hog market is done by any definition of a free market. Just my opinion.
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