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farmerguy89
Advisor

10 - 28 weather update

Anyways, somebody has to give you the scoop.

Looks like rain, rain, rain. That promised dry weather? That was a conspiracy between the weather and market people to get bushels, as some might say (not me of course).

In the 5-10 day period, I foresee rising basis in soybeans and phone calls from elevators and processors alike at your door. The elevators are empty or at least have space, the export/ process business is empty or low. There's more buyers than sellers. And you know what? These guys sold the end products before they were produced and brought vessels into port and are racking up demurrage. The elevator guys tell me that the farmer eventually needs money... Well the end user needs the commodity if they've run out: it works two ways here. Selling is light.

Corn harvest is yet to begin locally In ontario. I imagine the moisture is 35-30% and likely not gettin any better. Likely most northern corn gets left outside. Not movin the basis? Your not getting corn.

On the 30 day forecast I don't see much if any corn coming off as guys struggle to get beans off of untiled land. By this time most processors will realize that they can't just get corn for free and will have to pay the bill or shut down. Locally I need .39 to get to 4.50 and to start thinking about the corn heads. This should be there by dec or mid nov... Maybe $5 by jan. You wanna pay the drying bill in dec?

All in all, weather and supply problems will support prices. Anyways, If it hasn't been raining for almost the past 30 days in your area, you might disregard this post.

Any comments? Anything I missed?
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giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: 10 - 28 weather update

Thanks Farmerguy,

 

Where are the nice colorful pictures? Just kidding. 

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