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Senior Advisor

10.7..........

is laughable.............on 87M harvest..........even more laughable........

 

anyone else get the feeling this was a play to get fall price down just a bit in corn............

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 10.7..........

Makes me think that big Bob was right and the top of the corn market is going to come in December or January. I don't believe that we are going to harvest almost 11 billion bushels this year.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: 10.7..........

Absolutely MT.  I used to think that USDA was just incompetent at times.  Now, I think they are pushing the agenda of holding down prices.  How else do you explain this harvested acre number?  For a drought year, short crop year, this has to be a record high harvested acre percentage.   Heck, its a couple of percent off of a normal year.  That is crazy.

 

 

Anecdotally, I have never seen so many acres cut for silage around here (SESD)

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Senior Contributor

Re: 10.7..........

Mizzou--It may be laughable, the USDA may be wrong and all you bulls out there are right, but you better not be long.   Even if we run out of corn next week, I doubt if corn goes much above the all time high (less than $9?)  As I have said before, we will see $4 corn in the not too distant future--within 12-24 months--or less.

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Senior Advisor

Re: 10.7..........

no offense..........but saying corn could have a $4 in front of it in the next 2 years is pretty much worthless......

 

and Mizzou looks to win the SEC in the next 2 years as well........

 

really........

 

couple of things to think about.........grain buyers are calling during harvest looking for corn.........lot of grain buyers in traditionally huge corn production states are offering anything they can to get good clean corn.........2011 corn that is clean is commanding a premium.........

 

ITS FREAKING SEPTEMBER 12TH AND HARVEST IS IN FULL SWING..................THIS SHOULDNT BE HAPPENING..........REALITY IS, CORN ISN'T OUT THERE AND THE USDA IS JUST TRYING TO KEEP THINGS AFLOAT...........THEY ARE MESSING WITH THE BOOKS AND ARE ABOUT TO RUN OUTTA LEDGER WHEN THE FINAL PRODUCTION NUMBER PRINT HAS A 9 IN FRONT OF IT.........

 

The USDA is doing a dis-service by holding on to hope............at this point it appears they will try and float the books till after the election..........in which case the drop the 9 bomb.........and then turn around and mess with RFS or something..........

 

I for the life of me can not figure out why a 10.7B crop is bearish..............WE TAKE FOOD FOR GRANTED IN THIS COUNTRY AND IT MAKES ME FREAKING SICK............

 

edit:

 

http://www.agrimoney.com/feature/usda-crop-revisions-are-not-as-bearish-as-they-look--166.html

 

 

 

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Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: 10.7..........

worried about food??

 

surely you jest.....I remember you were the one saying cut out all the exports----all in the name of having more corn left here to make ethanol...

 

you fail to comprehend the big picture plan for corn supply at work in the marketplace...

 

 

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: 10.7..........

Well Ray enlighten ole sheldon of this grand plan........also couldn't it be argued that ethanol only uses about 3B as the by products replace close to 2B......which at somE point we will need that 3B plus so ethanol has pushed us to find ways to produce more and understand our capacity....
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Esteemed Advisor

Re: 10.7..........

A fitting ditty....

 

Na na na na....na na na na....hey ey ey.....goodbye MT.

Na na na na....na na na na....hey ey ey.....goodbye BULLS.

 

Swing lows were just made in the beans MT. Beans must make new highs in 6 tdays or the game is OVER. TIME is at an end.

Wheat and corn swing lows were also just made, exactly on TIME. We bought some yesterday but just to catch the failure swing hgiher is all. We are still pretty much sold out of c/s for 12 and most of 13 after the last couple of weeks.

 

Wheat should rally till right around 10/1 and then GAME OVER. So it must exceed 9.50 before then to keep the game alive.

The corn failure rally could last 7 tdays, or 14-17 tdays, but regardless of what you think the S&D is or might be....

TIME is at an end.

 

You seem to forget that the market has rallied 50% in the last 9 months, and the specs now own all the available supply of all the grains in the world. Yet price is only at this level. POINT IS that the supply shortage is IN THE PRICE, or will be in the next 7-14 days. By 10/1 every farmers should have 100% of the 2013 sold and half the 2014. Because the price in fall of 2014 will indeed have a 4 in front and maybe even a 3. GASP. BLASPHEMY. OFF WITH HIS HEAD. I merely am reporting the obvious, but you will want to shoot the messenger for sure.

 

Na na na na....na na na na....hey ey ey.....goodbye MT.

Na na na na....na na na na....hey ey ey.....goodbye BULLS.

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Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: 10.7..........

so whats your avg price for 2012 on C/S if you dont mind.........8/16 or 8/17.............thanks

 

2013, yes soya........corn, nope not yet............

 

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=321372&mid=2507611#M2507611

 

dont forget............see link...........think I TIMED that pretty well for corn...........

 

EDIT:  just curious if you are selling 2 years out.........what did your 08-11 sales look like............and when you say sold out........you talking 50%, 80%, 100% of expected trend yields or what...........cause that didnt work out too well for many this year..........seems you are on the sell it, grow it schedule..........

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Highlighted
Esteemed Advisor

Re: 10.7..........

2012 corn around $8, 2012 soy around 18.00. Unpriced it all June 1-10th. So have hedge profits to add to the re-sales made in late July and August on the timing points. It is unlikely the timing will work that well again for a few years.

 

We always sell up to 100% of the 5 year average in advance IF we want to do so. Yes, the tools and the tactics are important as is the location of our farms. Mostly use Cargill tools due to the flexibility and professional nature of our relationship with them.

 

Most know that we sold 3 years out in 2008 in May, admittedly 4 weeks early. By 2009 it didn't matter that we were early. SO, no changes this time, all the 12 is sold, 50% of the 13 and 25% of the 14. The next rally back we will get more sold for 2013. Again, you have to do a comprehensive plan and also know where you live. If you cannot count on production, you have to use futures and have the funding set-up to manage that approach.

 

In general, we chose to TAKE NO PRICE RISK when prices are in the upper 20% of the decade long range.

 

Na na na na....na na na na....hey ey ey.....goodbye MT.

Na na na na....na na na na....hey ey ey.....goodbye BULLS

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