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Senior Advisor

Re: $12 Corn?

An example for why specs get too much credit. My contention is that physical fundamentals, not specs that stampede for 'technical reasons, rule the market. The market has had a steady trend based on the liklihood of short supplies domestically because of ending stocks. Ethanol is here and woulda, shoulda, coulda, regarding that policy don't matter (but like oil at one time it was felt that low priced corn was a given, and so the policy made complete sense at the time).

 

The example. The trendline for prices is up until a competing trend stalls it or deflects it in another direction. Every time there is a 'crash' there are those who say they saw it coming and 'it couldn't last'. But the trend is still intact until further notice. Rationing hasn't taken place as expected, though the naysayers say it's here, it just hasn't been reflected in the numbers - yet, again.

 

So far, all the predictions about the blunting of the trend have been wrong (even though all the theory and anecdotes are recited each time) - for months. There's a lesson here.

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