$12 New crop beans.

[425Cat]

Planter in the shed . New beans are 12 cash. How many do you sell??
Over the ins guarantee.

Buy puts at this juncture until the planter rolls??
None?? She's gonna hit 14.
Its only april

[roarintiger1]

We've got a long ways to go.........put up another bin!  

[farmerguy89]

Put up another bin. 7 vessels coming from Brazil to USA. I'm riding everything not sold to harvest unless we see a drastic course change.

We are well over. 13 here

[timetippingpt]

Put up another bin? Well I guess someone has to sell $15 beans for $10, might as well be you guys. Remember RayJ's story of the farmers refusing to sell $8 corn, I guess they are still building bins too.

Cat was talking new crop I think, so selling $13 (once you sell now at $12.50 and then roll to capture the carry after harvest) is a bad idea?

Following someone who is so blindly bullish is a good way to get lost in the mountains. Just keep walking and ignore that cliff you are approaching. 🙂    For goodness sake, at least lock the extremely storng basis for old crop and deliver the grain. We've even locked some new crop basis at average basis levels to avoid what cold easily become a basis bloodbath this fall.

Might get back in the fields this afternoon, which is far more enjoyable than working on the books. Be safe everyone...oh yes....

PEAK BINS!

[roarintiger1]

  You guys have no sense of humor. Blindly bullish? Ha, I've been called worse.  Plus, you don't have to be in the mountains to get lost. Many of the market advisors have proven that.....as many of them have been far from the top......  Heck, go ahead and sell all of your crops a couple of years out and save that money that could've bought those bins.  

[farmerguy89]

Take it with a grain of salt. No one knows what will happen. You just have to be able to live with the consequences of your actions. We don't know enough to sell and we are still climbing

[timetippingpt]

Absolutely true...no one "knows" what "will" happen. But, many market participants do know what "normally" happens after certain events, like a generational drought in the cornbelt in 2012, and bean drought in 2013. We just like to plan for normal to happen is all.

btw..I have been super bullish wheat, and bullish all the grains, since the epiphany...so I am not always bearish 🙂 It is just that "now the time has come" to get defensive as a producer. Price has underperformed our expectations (5.40 and 16.27) which is not bullish.

And back to his question, I like buying deep in the money puts, something like a Nov 13.50. Of course, short futures pays better but it also cost more in most scenarios.

Plantings rolling hard in WC-IN and north yesterday. While they wore supposed to get 3" of rain, they only got 3 tenths. Our area had an inch, so more tiling time for us.

[425Cat]

Money is to be made on 12cash beans however the cupboard is empty and the world is still buying so I dont see huge downside risk yet.