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Senior Advisor

$13 beans, not exactly but how close we get come Nov?

 Clearly, these prices are due to the diminished prospects for South American crops, it's dry and may stay dry but you better believe that if it rains there these prices won't hold.

Clearly, the dry weather in Brazil offers a possible opportunity to at least lockin some better prices for next year's crops.

But if you look at prices next fall compared to those through early summer, the traders are betting US producers will deliver.  Maybe, maybe not.   I'm thinking that if the dry continues harvest prices will come up to current nearby prices.

If that's the case, I'll want to price some new crop beans.  The question becomes, "what's the target?"

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Honored Advisor

Re: $13 beans, not exactly but how close we get come Nov?

Buy a put or contract and buy a call.  Big Al was saying the close on Thursday opened the door to $15, the Fibonacci watchers say $14 but those are old crop prices.  Old Beans have a week or 2 like they just had, they could be $15 by mid Jan. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: $13 beans, not exactly but how close we get come Nov?

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/news/Dec30_20-Recent-Rains-in-Central-Brazil-Help-to-Stabilize-Soybea...

The Brazil crop will in all likelihood be as big or bigger than last year simply because of increased acreage.

Argentina will likely be somewhat reduced because of dryness and political turmoil.

Will be interesting  to see corn acreage this coming year. 

Lots of nh 3  already applied. Iowa plants corn.

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Veteran Advisor

Long term dry

For South America say another 2.5 years of Big Dry ....alot drier than 2020 was. 

USA has dry issues too.  Expanding dry in Midwest. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Long term dry

Arlen Suderman expects to squeeze 18 months out of this demand driven rally.  And there`s talk of the Dollar crashing...but isn`t the Dollar always just about to crash?   Smiley Happy 

Rumors Of My Demise… (an unplanned tutorial in blogging, and explanation  for my disappearance) | TALES FROM THE MOTHERLAND

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Senior Contributor

Re: Long term dry

With dollar devaluation have we rallied that much.

could be a short squeeze coming.

nice yearly closes. 
lotsa money looking for a home.

farmers heavily sold.

random thoughts 

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Veteran Advisor

Evolutionary Demand Cycle

The increase of product use thus  demand due to human evolution.

The afore causes 15 to 25% increases during their catch up Need demand need cycles..

 

 

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Long term dry

IF  your  looking  for  EXPERT  HUMOR  -,  review   June  2020  marketing  discouragement ,  which seems quite interesting  - - -  

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Contributor

Re: Long term dry

Farmers being sold out is absolutely key to going to $15.00 per bushel maybe even $17.00!

supply report won’t show it but we are essentially out of soybeans.

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