141-144 bu/ac corn, 37-38 bu/ac soybeans = $8-$9/bu corn, $17-$19/bu soybeans

[ellen3697897]

All I can see of Jeffs commentwas a question "what do you think" the rest was a press release that Jeff passed along. I for one appreciate the heads up as to what the cme is hearing. edit; sorry, was meant as a reply to BA DEERE

[BA Deere]

I hate to say it Jeff, but they might be optimistic if NCIA`s  Accuweather forecast is the way it has been (over promise and under deliver on rainfall totals).  If the 25 days is as they say and we have less than a 3/4" total and assuming NCIA is a garden spot, it`s gonna be ugly maybe 130 on corn. We got a shot at a great bean crop, but it`s like Hemmingway described how he went broke "Slowly at first, then all at once". Kruse was talking about possibly ending with a negative carryover.  I don`t know...all I know is we all need rain and alot of it soon.

[Jeff_a_Caldwell]

Love the Hemingway! Good info, Deere, thanks! Heard a report today that western Iowa looks a little better than things do right around the central part of the state. But, definitely, that won't last long without a drink. I know right around me, I've yet to see a field yellowing, but I've also yet to see a field the last few days that doesn't look almost more like pineapple than it does corn. So, say we end up sub-130...at what price do we start to see China back off it's buys and more serious talk of endi the ethanol mandate? Heck, of those two things, which happens first? One fact Roggensack pointed out today that shocked me: soil moisture levels are the lowest, altogether, than they've been since 1895. That's just amazing to me!

[dapper7]

the former garden spot of nw iowa has entered to slow motion train wreck zone. no rain forecast for 10 days. hope we can hold a 120 national yield.

[Gambler]

NC soybeans @ $600.00 per tonne  sounds good

[Palouser]

If China senses a crop disaster in the US it could easily prompt them to speed up thier buying, not slow them down. They will buy all they need whatever the price. Their reserve will be used to try and control domestic prices and tide them over for the BIG ONE! But if they increase buying so will others. Food is food and it will be bought. 

[c-x-1]

I've been wondering when it began raining in '88 - thanks for that date! Sounds like they might of had practically no crop if it weren't for that rain.

  Assuming more avg planting dates '88 - say, on balance - 2 weeks later, then consider this years forecast - dry 7-10 out. Counting, i come up w/ no rain sooner than July 25-28 - almost entire belt will be beyond R2. Whereas in '88 it began raining by V16 - R1  for  majority of belt. Something to ponder.

  goes w/out saying, so i'll say it anyway - the stress been going on for 4 wks+ now and @ least another 1-2 wks causes IRreversable damage - the botanists say up to 50% yield reduction on acres that are harvested.

  I figure we can go ahead & count the 11 M ac ( very poor cat )being gone..by the 20th. rain in Tn, s IL, In, Oh/south is/will be to late. Miracle to get 130 on rest. Feelin' a sub 10 B final # here...or worse. Got a 105 bpa on trendline analysis of trendline yield chart ( which had actual finals plotted in a line graph )dating back to 1960. chin up.

[Mike central IA]

"So was it global warming in the 30's that caused the dust bowl?  What about the seven years of famine in Egypt with Joseph?  I suppose camel gas was the problem back then...7 years of drought and the camels died and then it started raining again.   Weather changes, that is a fact.  I don't think global warming affects sun spots last I knew."

I think it is generally agreed that aggressive tillage and wind erosion were pretty big players in the dust bowl. We, as growers, effectively turned the southwest and the plains into a desert. Windbreaks, new tillage methods and dumb luck managed to save us that time. Whether you choose to believe in global warming, don't insunuate that those of us who do believe and are worried are less intelligent. The same can be said about a lot of people making big money by ignoring it, as saying some will profit from global warming fear.

I think Egypt and Joseph was a whole 'nuther deal. If God says you are going to have a famine, there just isn't alot of sense arguing with Him.

This is interesting info on the dust bowl:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVoXW4YrqTs

[timetippingpt]

Jeff - I have a lot of respect for Dan but if people are going to listen to him, they need to learn about his strengths/weaknesses. Dan is one the best bull market traders in the business. Unfortunately, news is always bullish at the top, and Dan tends to look for the next retracement to buy, and the next one..etc.Just like Brock is the best bear and worst bull market advisor in the business. Dan is just the opposite, hard to believe Dan started out working for Rick back in the early 80's. Folks should do their own research is all. Both are solid men, but each has strengths and weaknesses. Learn to know when to listen and when to ignore each. (same applies to me, I always underestimate the irrational stupdity of market extremes)

Have any of you taken a moment to seriously read the things posted on this site this week? Human nature tends to be a sad thing to watch in real time. Did you really have to put those ridiculous price forecasts in BIG BOLD PRINT. Like that does anything to help a real farmer whose crop is dying in the field, but he still has to sell what is left. I guess some call it "Suc Farming" magazine for a reason.

Sure, the high isn't here yet, but it will be here before those guys quoted in your article turn bearish.

The drought is getting to be old news. You can't get away from this drought. Mulitple stories on various national news shows about the drought and how food prices are going up, blah, blah, blah, and we had to have the MANDATORY farmer who will have to sell her cows and quite farming. boo hoo. NBR was in Chicago quizing food company CEO's about the drought driving up food prices. Of course, they were both 100% hedged, no worries, be happy. (Yeah right).

But wait, back on the Suc Farming site, we should all focus on crucifying VR Buck, the evil bear who got caught in the trap of statistical outliers. And wave the palms as our great teacher MT counsels us on the sins of the Buck. (Yes, pull back the curtain and MT is the grace illuminated Bull who just happened to get caught on the right  side of the statistical outlier this time). Both mere victims of chance. Kind of like a mini-Basse/Brock show.

As farmers, everyone should just calm down and start to sell something cause you are frying your user base. Palouser is right of course china will buy at any price. No debate, exports will be strong, but the outcome of this will only be good for those who capitlize on a once in a decade opportunity. Meaning you have to harvest a few frenzied speculators. Pritch is seldom right, but he is very right on this simple fact of the commodity markets. 🙂

Now you all can go back to ripping the flesh off the latest target of your wrath (which will probably be me...dogs chewing on fresh bones don't like to be interupted 🙂   )   Hope you all enjoyed the imagery and humor intended.

The only thing for sure is that the computers will do millions of trades before any of us can call the floor. Just keep slapping the actual hedger CME, your monopoly will end soon enough.

WAIT, this just in, there is a drought, GLOOOMMMMMM and DOOOOMMMMMM, corn HAS to go higher. The yield "might be below 140....GLOOOOMMMMMM AND DOOOOMMMMMM. 140...130...120...OH MY!    (At least I can entertain myself.)

[jec22]

Mike, I guess I have a problem with all the times we get new regs on changing the coolant used in air conditioners.  Now they say it is about the ozone damage, but it also seems to be changed every time a patent runs out. 

You are right about money being made on both sides.  I can only control my little spot in the world and try to do  the best I can to leave it a little better.

There has been alot of weather extremes, way before man had that big of an effect on the world.  And the great crop years of 2000-2010 was during this time of 'global warming', so I don't think you can just pick and choose  which year you blame it on poor crops and which years you ignore great crops with the same man made 'warming'.  Now there is the thought out there that wind farms stop rain...leaving dry pockets around them.  If true,  that is green energy hurting crops.  Someone smarter than me if going to have to figure out which is really truth.

I can help a little this year.  No reason to spend money on drying corn if we are already under crop insurance levels.  Let it dry the natural way and save the fuel bill(both drying and trucking).  So maybe the early corn will either be chopped early or left to dry in the field.  If this weather keeps up, it will still be 17% by the last half of  Sept.