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11-21-2017 08:18 AM
Iowa down 200 million bushels.
That's one less 2 million bu white topped mountain per county. More than four unit trains per county (99 counties)
Explains the lack of piles I've seen. (Are still some)
Might be hope for,some more basis improvement here as we continue to grind through this crop.
11-21-2017 10:07 AM
So........ seems obvious that the 2017 corn crop is, according to NASS figures 600+ million lower than 2016.......
When was that realized..? And that seems very different than usda's fake releases..... Wasn't this our third record crop in a row....??? guaranteed except for our little spot in Ks and illinifarmer's location. All else was record.....plus
And isn't 25% of it still in the field... yet to be harvested.????
Wow we got a lot done the last 5 days.
Hogwash on Kansas ----acres went down west and sw and in central ks as soybean acres grew, one absolute truth in ks is gallons = bushels and every year the corn gallons go down ---- just observations ,,,, and who cares, a story like that is not uplifting for advertisers---- it is whatever the naked kings say it is.
pretty pictures and yes hobby there are not near the piles needed to harvest a record crop. You wonder what the payments are on that artwork using those two colors...? Cuter than accurate probably, but whomever does Van Trump's presentations does a good job...
Another story never gone to print..........1 Ethanol's effect on wheat....... and 2 the drought of 5 to 10 years (depending on where you were) effect on cattle... We still are struggling with getting numbers back on feed. Lots of feeders went and herds were lost in that time.... and wdg's and ddg's really bumped low quality wheat out of the feeding picture for the bovines. rollercoaster markets in cattle have hampered rebuilding...
11-21-2017 02:13 PM
Interesting you ask, I was just preparing a newsletter for a few interested parties who have some grain production interest in the area. There is always an introductory weather paragraph or two cause weather is always a factor in yield and everyone who ever lived out here asks if we have any moisture to work with--(they also all lean into the wind like the boys in the wonderful picture of two "old" farmers in overalls)
not that guy Those guys
who eventually become these guys
Anyway, Those fires happened the first week of April....... ..... But honestly I forgot to list them as a major event this year even though those winds destroyed lots of wheat crops and leveled transmission lines...... as well as killing off a lot of our area cattle production. 75mph+ sw winds... And just 30 days later a May 1 snow storm with 20 inches of snow and another set of 65+mph wind. And believe it or not neither of those were the three events that limited grain production in 2017, (although they contributed).
Sorry about the mind wandering diversion.......... answer......... The fences are still being built. But a lot went in pretty fast...
1...... Feed found its way to every driveway for a month and a half...... just dropped and more reappeared two days later... a wonderful thing to watch... 2 the locals finally got that slowed down because for many there wasn't much to feed it too. Dozers and backhoes buried cattle for days. 3... So by the time we got the great rains in the first of May (snow in western ks was mainly rain in the grass land of meade, kiowa, and comanche counties.... the grass came on with beauty.....a total contrast to the black earth after the fire.... We got busy and I haven't checked on the friends in that area much since, but what seemed like every implement dealer and farm store in maybe 4 states was taking donations and cleaning out inventory. Truck loads of posts, barbed wire etc etc started showing up the same way and came for a long time... As far away as Iowa for sure cause Hobby was talking to a guy he had met over there about sending some. Then came groups of soft hands to help .... it was pretty neat...as some gave up vacations.
I would say they are pretty far along with the basic perimiter stuff..... pens and corals and cross fences will take years... and getting the numbers back will be slow as well. Some of those that have taken three generations to put together will probably not survive in the same form....... but the area is amazingly beautiful to drive through now.... This ecosystem we work in has never been fragile or endangered but is pretty amazing to watch....... more often it is us who are hanging on for dear life.
Farm Homes --- we see several being replaced or restored to something different. But many older places will just have the concrete buried. I am very interested to see what becomes of those small communities. That old Iroquois League of smaller high schools centered in that area has for decades produced great athleletes and leaders out of those ranch communities. As far back as Wes Santee (the Kansas distance runner) who came out of Ashland, Ks in 1949) There has always been a lot of pride in those communities. And teams that will fight for every inch.
11-21-2017 06:48 PM - edited 11-21-2017 06:53 PM
Not that it matters, but both the corn and bean numbers for Ind are BS. No way in the world we
exceeded last years bean crop, while only losing a few mil bu of corn. Both are over-reported
in my opinion, but as we all know, our opinions are meaningless.
DC beans in the area all came out under 18 and at 17% moisture before the flood last week. In
2016 all the DC beans were in the 40's and 50's. Full season beans are all 5% to 10% below
last year. The math just don't work to support a monster crop.
Besides, there is no glut locally of merit. We delivered some Dec corn contracts today (obviously 2 weeks EARLY)
at 3 over basis to a local e-plant. Sure, Cargill is full, but only because they put 1.5 mil less on the ground than they
did 2 years ago. Why? They can't afford to put it on the ground with the basis already at zero! No
way they could earn the required 30 cents to go to the effort.
jmo...this game is not over yet. I just love to buy things when "all is lost".
2018 is very likely to see the return of commodity inflation and the normal money flows it endears.
Every growing region in the world for every crop has to keep producing a record crop every year to
maintain these price levels. Now what are the odds of that happening for another entire year. Lots
of "everys" become statistically important.