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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

168.1

….is the PF Tour’s predicted national corn yield. 

This ought to open a few eyes. 

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8 Replies
Blacksandfarmer
Senior Advisor

Re: 168.1

Based on what I've seen throughout the cornbelt, 168 on the corn side looks about right. Trendline yield of 177 takes a near perfect growing season across the U.S. 

51 bu on the soybean side is doable if we can get a good rain event. 

2022 isn't a nationwide crop failure by any means, just pretty average. 

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: 168.1

Pretty average won't cut it when the end users and traders were expecting near record yields.  As the saying goes......"Something's got to give." 

 

 

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: 168.1

I'd like nothing better than the traders get their lunch eaten.

I saw great crop in central Illinois. Not bad in the section of Indiana I traveled in today from Remington to Rochester to Chicago. Some dryness in the northern corridor. Decent in most of the I-80 section of Illinois. Fantastic in Eastern Iowa

I think the end users have a good feel for the situation at hand and in their respective areas. 

What they choose to do about it is their choice and responsibility. 

They could answer the question a famous actor once asked... "Do you feel lucky?'

In my area we are in crop insurance territory.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: 168.1

Ted Seifried was on Market to Market, he was actually on the PFT and saw the poor Nebraska irrigated crop and was surprised at that and other samples on his leg of the tour. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JkFhreB_fI  

But still Ted is in the 172 camp.  Ted says "yeah but"  the Pro Farmer tour only goes on a certain trek, other good corn out there.   Isn`t the criticism of the PFT that it it a plum route of the state`s best crops?  Seems to me if the best are suffering, then the fringe areas are really hurting.  Every year we hear "Pro Farmer is a lap dog for USDA" well, this year you see they aren`t, it could be that the tour this year is a couple weeks later and more accurate? 

Corn was planted late this year, "a bushel a day after middle of May" some would say you have to be done planting in April for the bin busters and that didn`t happen this year.  The problem is corn planted May 20th does look good from the road, late corn is taller, outside ears appear big.   However when you scout or the combines roll, it tells a  more honest story.

Jamie "Cull-Hockey" (I`m sorry, can`t find spelling of his name) was on the WHO Big Show sort of hanging crape on price expectations, much like Ted Seifried.   Touting low exports.  Color me skeptical, but I wonder if some of these guys didn`t get their clients protected/sold and now are in a bit of CYA?    Both warn "Look out next weekend is 3 day and potentially a big sell off,  with no one wanting to go into it long".  I guess, I`ll be watching. 

dwillinois
Senior Contributor

Re: 168.1

Primient Grain - Decatur Cash Bids

Name Delivery Start Delivery End Basis Month Futures Price Basis Cash Price Futures Change
Corn
Corn 08/01/2022 08/31/2022 Dec 2022 664-2 55 $7.19 +14-2
Corn 09/01/2022 09/15/2022 Dec 2022 664-2 30 $6.94 +14-2
Corn 09/16/2022 09/30/2022 Dec 2022 664-2 10 $6.74 +14-2
Corn 10/01/2022 10/31/2022 Dec 2022 664-2 5 $6.69 +14-2
Corn 11/01/2022 11/30/2022 Dec 2022 664-2 15 $6.79 +14-2
Corn 12/01/2022 12/31/2022 Dec 2022 664-2 20 $6.84 +14-2
Corn 01/01/2023 01/31/2023 Mar 2023 669-6 15 $6.85 +13-6

 

This is the old Tate and lyle outfit I would say they don't feel real comfy... yet 

Central Illinois is good but will be a late start until the bto's get going on 35% corn with premium to get it in 🤣

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: 168.1

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: 168.1

looks like the Eplant is getting the grinding wheel out to cut a few welds on bin doors.

They did move from Sept to Dec but have added 60¢ to their basis in last week. $7.83 cash right now up to Sept 15th.

Not sure I'll get to 100 bu corn let alone 160 anything.

Only way I'll get a decent yield # is if I go to hectares and neglect to mention that.

unlgrad
Advisor

Re: 168.1

Yep, using 2.47 acres equals 1 hectare would shoot the average up pretty good.  Might need to use that to make APH this year.  Would be funny if it wasn't so sad.  Next year, hopefully will be better.  Good luck.

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