Supporting your thought rayh,
We do not live in an economy that contains enough competition to beat those costs back down. And our industries are in a more mature, "just in time" mentality so surplus supply of inputs is not as likely to happen as it once was. And noone wants to get caught with too much of anything. But if they do they have the deep pockets to sit on supply.
That just leaves economic collapse as the only form of cost reduction and we are fighting that --- kicking and screaming. Which is inflationary. Collapse Probably won't happen and if it does ---- we got lots of other problems then.
I spent some time studying the 1920's & 30's in the last few years . The heat drought of 2011/12 and the economic panic in 2008-9 made me want to look and see what drives grain prices when currency becomes problematic?
In both extremes grains divorce from historical norms and commodities become the real currency.
IMO--- In both the rapid deflation of the 30's and the print dollars devaluation of the currency 08-09 +++, there seemed to be wisdom in holding on to the commodity as long as possible. A lot of grain storage gets built in those times.
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Anyway the point I was going to was I think there is a clue here as to why the best brokers and hedgers I have known understand the currency markets and value in terms of something other than a dollar.
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