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ray h.
Senior Contributor

2 A comical #

    Anyone that realy thinks corn will end up with a 2 in the front just does not understand inflation and the fact that the current # is about inline with the old 2 of decades ago!

5 Replies
tree fmr
Advisor

Re: 2 A comical #

I agree with you. BUT someone in 1979 might have said the same thing.
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ray h.
Senior Contributor

Re: 2 A comical #

    As I said,2 dollar corn is just an third world notion! If any of you want to put your all into corn at a level anything below $4.00 you have what is comming to you.$%#@* 4 is lower than the old 2.Get a grip!

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: 2 A comical #

I totally disagree with $4 is the old $2 at my place.

 

I am now pd off and running equip that will probably make it through the season or at least I have another one to pull the load if one goes down.

 

Wasn't that way in the $2 era a dozen or so years ago. For many you are probably correct.

Hard to make a blanket statement like that... One size fits all..Doesn't.

 

Got to moderate a meeting between a young man and a neighboring widow lady this afternoon trying to rent her best pasture... Not a fun job.

 

Young man has been taught by his dad that to be a "farmer" you can't have an off farm job and be a farmer. Near as I can tell he has taken a vow of poverty. He should have had a job this winter, they are out there in this area. Can only make it by playing the "young farmer" card and the 'Sympathy card".

 

Several things wrong in his game plan. Working on 30 years old, I'm not impressed. Not even close to fully employed. What a waste of his productive years. Not my job to see to it he gets at least a 25% under market rental rate from a 80+ year old widow woman. Needed an excedingly long term contract too. UUUGGG

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ray h.
Senior Contributor

Re: 2 A comical #

    Hobby,just irritating that some do not want to look at infation the way inflation is.60+ per unit N is not going away.$3.oo eather side off road diesel is not going away,so just saying $4.OO Isn't any thing to much to loose money on!

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: 2 A comical #

Supporting your thought rayh, 

 

We do not live in an economy that contains enough competition to beat those costs back down.  And our industries are in a more mature, "just in time" mentality so surplus supply of inputs is not as likely to happen as it once was.  And noone wants to get caught with too much of anything.  But if they do they have the deep pockets to sit on supply.

That just leaves economic collapse as the only form of cost reduction and we are fighting that --- kicking and screaming.  Which is inflationary.  Collapse Probably won't happen and if it does ---- we got lots of other problems then.

 

I spent some time studying the 1920's & 30's in the last few years .  The heat drought of 2011/12 and the economic panic in 2008-9  made me want to look and see what drives grain prices when currency becomes problematic?

In both extremes  grains divorce from historical norms and commodities become the real currency.

IMO--- In both the rapid deflation of the 30's and the print dollars devaluation of the currency  08-09 +++,  there seemed to be wisdom in holding on to the commodity as long as possible.  A lot of grain storage gets built in those times.

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Anyway the point I was going to was I think there is a clue here as to why the best brokers and hedgers I have known understand the currency markets and value in terms of something other than a dollar.

,.

 

 

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