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10-31-2018 10:43 PM
Bout that simple.
you better start thinking bout $4.50 corn and say towards $15 on the beans now.
FADE the trumpey crowd. They're wrong the market like crowds generally are.
IF possible plant say 80% beans in 019....granted most true crop rotations won't handle that though.
11-01-2018 02:00 AM
$4.50 corn in 2019 ? In the middle of a recession ? I wanna see you pull that rabbit out of your hat.
And every time someone goes off about beans in the teens, beans go down. I don't know why that is, probably the Curse Of Richard Dennis.
11-01-2018 06:37 AM - edited 11-01-2018 06:39 AM
Since the program (ARC/PLC) is based on county yields and national price,
areas like some in C-IN where we farm did earn some substantial payments
last year. I use the word "earn" intentionally. We had to have lost the bushels to
earn the payment, which merely made up for production losses in our
area due to flooding. The payment was close to 6 figures for some of the
larger farm operations since it is an acreage based payment.
Don't be so quick to rule out 4.50 corn smartyRayCom. The similarities to
late 1986 are pretty obvious at this point. jmo
11-01-2018 11:33 AM
Time good post. Wanted to correct one thing though. The PLC is based off of production from each farm. They let us update our yields at that time. Some of mine were raised 70% at the time. I signed up for PLC because of this and for went the large upfront payment. With the $3.70 guarantee it has helped a bunch. Thanks
11-01-2018 11:34 AM
As I have written here, if we get through the last major high at $4.1225, I think the sky is the limit, certainly $4.50. But all of the macro-economic tea leaves are telling me the economy will be a lot slower next year than it has been for the last several, and its hard to get agricultural prices to reverse trend in that kind of environment.
But should the market get up through that high made last May, I will be the first one banging the table to buy.,
11-02-2018 02:10 AM
I think the conditions that exist now and that will drive bean acres down, could drive corn acres down as well.
Major acre swing are fringe swings.
We will see........... but I am comfortable with relying my future vision ....compared to usda's budget building formula.