2 days to go
and the major stock indices will more than likely finish up or down a tiny bit for the year. Smaller caps are signiicantly down for the year.
Bonds (government, junk most definitely not) were actually OK as the yield curve has flattened even in a "tightening cycle." Take heed, inflationistas.
Commodities have been a P&*sing post for the market dog all year long. Oil, China, lack of major crop problems around the world.
I'm open to the possibility that we'll see some rotation into the commodity sector in the new year in a dogs of the dow sort of contrarian move. But I don't see a resumption of a secular commodity bull that lifts all boats any time soon.
Stock market is the one that's rattling around in my worry closet. Majors haven't gone anywhere for 14 months while the internal breadth has deteriorated- a classic sign of a topping cycle. The current bull marklet has run beyond the average length for post-war recoveries already. Looking around the globe, nobody to pull the boat.
Kinda interesting, though, that really since GHWB (who arguably lost the presidency over it) we really haven't had old fashioned garden variety corrections- it has been an all in and crash cycle.
FWIW, I'm thinking 30 yr USTs and cash. Maybe some gold if we get a further washout. Owning it at 1050 is better than 1900 but I'm still not that interested here.
Commodities- opportunistically long or short on their own merits.