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Senior Contributor

20/20 hindsight

It`s fun to go back to Marketing page 12 or so and see everyone`s thoughts of where the markets were headed. It`s almost like you`re back to June, 2010, except you`re the only one with a crystal ball knowing the final tally.  I can`t report anything profound but everyone, their bother and dog was stone cold bearish, as bearish as they are bullish today. Comments were "never seen such tremendous start"  "170-180bu national yield"  $2 corn this fall" 'Woden will need a 6 lane street for all the corn coming".  6 months from now maybe one can look back on here and see the exuberant bullishness for a laugh, too bad the crystal ball doesn`t work foreward in time.  Happy New Year

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Senior Contributor

Re: 20/20 hindsight

Much of marketing involves "trying to drive by looking in the rear view mirror" and I'm as guilty of that as anyone.  Technicals are entirely about what happened before and how it may happen again.  Fundamentals are less so intrinsically, but in fact we often look for analogue activities so we partially defeat the fundamentalist approach.  Cycles are definitely backward looking.

 

One of my big gripes is the idea that we can look back thirty years and then project some pattern into the future when the essential basis of the pattern has changed.  What good does 30 years of soybean charts do when we now have SA in the mix and a much wealthier Asian population?  A large fraction of corn is used in ethanol, a use that didn't exist a dozen years ago.

 

I don't have anything better to offer and still rely heavily on seasonals even as I trust them less and less.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: 20/20 hindsight

TRUTH is other than on general agronomic and economic principles, there is no accurate long rage forcasting.

In june is is total toos of the coing if there will be Weather problems.

Those who make a call and think they "knew" becauwe they were right, become more delusional.

 

Those who caught ontoi the 'hot nights theme" by late july were right- that is real stuff not loopy.

 

Things went wrong , ADD in index length and you have bull mkts.

 

Are they vulnerable here? or just fine?

 

why can't SRW make a new high over its 3 wk old high or HIGHER russia over panic?  expecially with everything else booming?

 

art

 

 

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Contributor

Re: NOT EVERYONE

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Senior Contributor

Re: NOT EVERYONE

excellent premonition, Boarsnest. Did you have the courage to stick with your own advice?

 

I have a post around that time suggesting waiting for $6 corn and $13.50 soybeans, but I got all excited after one of the dips, and sold way too much $4.50 corn, and $11 soybeans.

 

Still holding the last 25%, watching the trend closely.

 

Not contracting anything for 2011 or 2012 at this point, will wait to lock in inputs and prices at the same time.

 

I can make money at $2 corn or at $8 corn...it is the margin that makes you money, or breaks you.

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Contributor

Re: NOT EVERYONE

 I acually left one of corn hedges on. I sold a few beans after harvest as I thought $11 was a gift and I needed the cash flow. The last corn sale that I made was before planting so I am still sitting on a pile of corn and a good chunk of beans. It really wasn't a premonition nor was I trying to make a prediction. I was looking out of my back door, I was listening to others accross the state (a lot of times they cry wolf though). A truck driver who used to work for me was telling me about the corn crop in other areas.  I knew the rain totals for other areas that had to have had nitrogen loss. I was loading hogs at 4 in the morning with 80+ degree temps.   

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Contributor

Re: 20/20 hindsight

makes me feel better about my $5 corn and $11 bean sales going back and looking s

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