2011 Acreage Battle

[AlKluis]

Driving across southwest Minnesota yesterday and today. I’m amazed at the amount of corn stocks that are being plowed and the amount of anhydrous ammonia that is going on. I think the forecast for 2011 corn acreage to be at 90-93 million acres is likely to be correct. What are you seeing in your area? 

[Sundowner]

Alot of black fields and NH3 going on here in NCIA.

I myself have plowed more than usual as I am going to plant more corn. However, I also can change my mind and go  with soybeans on those acres too. I now can go either way and have until spring to decide.

Didn't book any NH3 ahead of time for this fall so am holding off on putting any on as it too high priced now.

Another $2 on the soybeans and I would likely go 50% soybeans, which I haven't done for quite a few years. (have been 70% corn %30 sb)

[JRfrom OR]

Alfalfa seems to be losing quite a few acres in the west.

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

Some CRP is coming out around me and it typically goes into beans the first year.  I don't see much evidence of crop switching in these rolling hills where a rotation is generally preferred.  However, I myself might switch a few acres to put continuous corn on some ground that tends to get wet - I'm not sure yet.  We have almost no wheat around here so no feel for changes there.

[Mark, ncIA]

Al,

We've seemed to run into a fertilizer shortage around here, that without many saying they're adding many acres.  (btw, takes a lot of COC in sMN & nIA to reach last yrs. acreage) There's no more NH3, P, K, or Su at any price.  Certainly the nice fall has lead to fast application of NH3, and along with price worries, & some switching from spring applied to fall.  That said, I think the +3.8 million acres is a pipedream.  Takes an equivilent amount of N more than last year of what Koch's Ft. Dodge IA plant makes in a year.  Let alone the extra Wheat & Cotton N demand.  Not sure where that all comes from?  Then there's the limbo acres, that won't be decided 'til spring.  Those might be hard pressed to buy with what could be $1,000 NH3 or $430 UAN.

Certainly lots of tillage going on.  Some probably on the recreational side too.

Mark

[idalivered]

seeing the same thing as you. nh3 and P&K not available. tile shortage also, tho i suspect we're done tiling. our part of ncia was heavy corn anyway and have heard some inexperienced coc guys disappointed with yields. I don't see an increase in corn acres out my back door and maybe a small shift back to soybeans.

[Mark, ncIA]

Ida,

Tile thing is kind of interesting, isn't it?  Lots burried this fall for sure.  Neighbor ended up getting some from Canada? last week, while I noticed the ADS yard in EG was plum full, must have all been spoken for?

Same on acres 20 some mile south of you, while a few are adding some.  Many that have had some bad luck with COC, whether due to inexperience or whatever, are continuing to move back towards the 50/50.  Still think those uncommitted, unfertilized acres will be tough to buy for the corn mkt. with whorehouse fert. prices this spring.

Mark

[AlKluis]

An early "Merry Christmas" from Minnesota, where we had 10-12 inches of snow over the weekend! Thanks for all of your responses to some of my earlier comments about 2011 acreage. I'm comfortable projecting 90-92 million acres of corn in 2011 and I now realize how the price increase of fertilizer may make getting over 92 million acres very difficult. Let me know what the price and availability of nitrogen is in your area...

And also, I do have a Facebook page, you can find it by searching "Al Kluis" on facebook.com...I upload daily charts and updates that you may find interesting. Thanks for stopping by and taking the time to respond!