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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

24-year Price Perspective

As corn hits an 8-year high, on the most active contract. Here's a 24-year look at both corn and soybeans. The charts are credited to Finviz.

 

Monthly corn chartMonthly corn chart

 

Monthly Soybean chartMonthly Soybean chart

As you look at the charts, what would you say was happening during the peaks and troughs?

 

Mike

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13 Replies
rsbs
Veteran Advisor

Re: 24-year Price Perspective

with the expansion of the US dollar supply it is hard to put current prices into proper perspective. A dollar in 2000 is not the same dollar in 2021.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: 24-year Price Perspective

yes ............

Always something to keep in mind.   Also the conditions at the time.......   for example today we see in the news that weather is causing delays in early corn planting ---ie cold temps.     And may be true but in this region we could go by before now... but we have had trouble sourcing fertilizer all spring..... that is our main delay.  Ground prep is behind for other reasons.  

These factors will weigh on total acres planted as well.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: 24-year Price Perspective

Nh3 now running about $700 ton here with all surcharges, bar rent, delivery, etc.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: 24-year Price Perspective

costs are very flexible upward.  

I was watching a livestock trailer sell close to hobby this week because manufacturer of it tells me they can't deliver orders for up to a year and a half because they can't get material........ Steel is worse than aluminum.  Won't even quote prices.  

Neighbor has had a truck ordered from ford (3/4 ton) for 5 months ---waiting on computer chips.......

 

It is hard to put anything into perspective after the government take over.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: 24-year Price Perspective

Lol.

The folks who run actually the show need you to get a little extra feed every now and then so they can go to 3X milking. Although most really don't complain about the symbiotic relationship.

$3 NG- somebody's makin' some money.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: 24-year Price Perspective

And in fairness, if the US government- and global governments- had just let herd immunity run its course and undertaken no economic intervention, a lot of this stuff- including corn- might be worth about 1/3rd as much.

An outrage I tell you!!!!!

Sheesh. Can't repeat the jokes about farmers here.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: 24-year Price Perspective

the death rate 2020 will be average and the population will continue to grow.... no matter how power hungry bureaucrats reacted.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: 24-year Price Perspective

I Now Track the Most Important Measure of the Fed’s Economy: the “Wealth Effect” and How it Impacts ...

It isn't about the fiscal side so much at this point.

It most definitely is about The Fed. 

As Wolf says above, when Jay heard the rumors that he was going to be fired (by intention, obviously) he did the volte face and tried to accomodate the POTUS' re-election bid, beginning in late '18.

The pandemic just poured more gas on it. That's the funny money part of folks chasing the 2006 Redux theme.

And of course we've had huge, historic disruptions in both supply chains and consumer spending. In fairness, there also would have been a lot of disruption- although I can't predict how it would have unfolded if we'd gone the Bring Out Your Dead route and just let people wait until millions died to quit going out.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: 24-year Price Perspective

This is a dicey time without question, but still fascinating to hear folks saying the world is coming to an end at a moment when the national wealth is at an all time record high. On the more granular level, farming is looking pretty darn good too.

But anyway, in fairness, US wealth was also at record previous highs in late '16 or very early '20, too, and lots of folks were unhappy.

The probelm is in the distribution, not the quantity. And them that's got will spend a little of it to convince the ones that ain't that somebody else took theirs.

 

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