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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: 24-year Price Perspective

Spouting ideological bull crap is good for drawing affinity but the US death rate for ‘20 was up 16% and the heart of the Trump Death Wave fell in ‘21. Right now I’d guess ‘21 will be about the same- we’re way ahead of last year but generally trending down.

Anyway, I am deaf to complaints about government spending from people in a sector that received far more on a per capita basis than the average person.

Anyway, to my point- for now this is more about the Fed than spending. And like following the last collapse, the new administration is just going along with the course set during the previous one.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: 24-year Price Perspective

If I spout data or spec of data ..... It causes me to search and make sure ...... 

I should note that actual 2020 death rate data won't be out for another 7 months.  All that can be found now from census or CDC is "Provisional" expectations.... they will spend the year sorting out covid cases to see what cases where underlying to other causes of death.... as well as other factors.... including misrepresented preliminary paperwork.

If the current assumed figures turn out to represent accepted reality in November, the low death rate for 2019 of 00.87% (which was around 0.9% for the previous 4 years)   will increase to 01.01% of the population .   An increase of deaths in the US by 0.13% most of which were cover related.  For comparison that won't get higher than 3rd in causes of deaths.  Heart disease will still double it and cancer will be farm more.   accidental death will be half as many as covid. (using todays accepted provisional data).  by 2019 standards

a coupler of other items were interesting to me........ according to cdc data .... if you were born in 2019 your life expectancy is 78.7 years........ but if you turned 65 in 2019 your life expectancy is 85 years.   I understand why buy I thought us older folks needed something for our efforts.  The effect of covid is not going to change these very much.

Also in an NBC article I found this info that I believe but doubt the research was done to verify it....... "It has been well established that underlying health problems, such as obesity, kidney disease, high blood pressure and Type 2 diabetes, put a person at risk for severe outcomes of Covid-19.

A CDC study published this month found that nearly 80 percent of Covid-19 patients hospitalized in the U.S. were classified as either overweight or obese."

 

 

Is that a Pandemic if 80% of those hospitalized were there because of life style?   Is covid death easily preventable?  

 

are we going to bury the computers and cell phones ,  walk to work,  sell the backhoes, ride the bike,  

Ask yourself was this a Pandemic or are we just "HYSTERICAL". 

rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: To answer Mike's original question,....

Looks like we're resetting the price level to a new level.  Cattle did the same thing during the 2012 drought. 

Absolutely nothing wrong with that, how long has ground in Iowa been worth $10-$15 K, the price of corn needs to come up enough to justify the price of land.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: To answer Mike's original question,....

I don`t know if commodities have to go up to justify $15,000 land, if grain goes higher, land`ll just go to $30,000.  Land is kind of a "asset bubble" that is running on an endless supply of helium.  Kind of like  Polo ponies and Lamborghinis, not something you buy thinking will cash flow.  But that`s not to say if you buy $20,000 land and it goes to $30,000 that you won`t be happy.  Smiley Happy  

 

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